[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 231235
SWODY1
SPC AC 231233

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0733 AM CDT SUN OCT 23 2005

VALID 231300Z - 241200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW
SRQ 45 NE MLB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WSW CTY 35 SE SSI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE DMN 40 NW SAD
40 SW PRC 35 ESE IGM 60 NE IGM 55 ESE SGU 20 SSE PGA 20 WSW ABQ 20 E
ROW 40 ENE HOB 45 NE BGS 30 SSE ABI 35 SSW BWD 30 NNW HDO 30 SSE
DRT.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN FL PENINSULA AND FL KEYS...

...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AND SEASONABLY COLD MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH...ELONGATED E-W
FROM THE MID-MS RIVER VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND...WILL DIG SWD ON ITS
WRN PERIPHERY INTO THE NRN GULF COAST REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THIS WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS FOR HURRICANE WILMA...WITH
INCREASING SWLY DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO
INDUCING A NEWD ACCELERATION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. NHC FORECAST
TAKES WILMA TO A POSITION JUST OVER 100NM OFF THE COAST OF SWRN FL
BY 24/06Z. INTERACTION OF LEADING OUTER BANDS WITH FL KEYS/FAR SWRN
FL PENINSULA SHOULD COMMENCE THIS AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...PROLONGED AND BROAD SWATH OF NWLY LOW-TO-MID LEVEL FLOW
ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. DURING PAST 48 HOURS HAS LEFT MUCH OF THE
COUNTRY DEVOID OF RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. LEADING COLD FRONT MOVING
VERY SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS N-CENTRAL FL IS ASSOCIATED WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID 70S SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE...AND IN THE LOW TO MID 50S
ACROSS FAR NRN FL. OTHERWISE...SURFACE DEWPOINTS AOA 60F ONLY EXIST
NEAR THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF TX. SECONDARY SURFACE FRONT
EXTENDING FROM E-CENTRAL NM TO FAR N-CENTRAL TX TO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY WILL TRACK RAPIDLY SWD AND SEWD DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
TODAY.

IN THE SWRN CONUS...NEARLY STATIONARY MID-LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED
THERMAL LOW /-15C AT 500MB/ HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH SPORADIC CG
LIGHTNING ACROSS FAR NRN AZ THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH
SWD SURGING SECONDARY FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR ISOLATED TSTM ACTIVITY DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.

...FL PENINSULA AND KEYS...
LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE IS PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EARLY THIS MORNING OFF THE GULF AND ATLANTIC
COASTS OF FL. SOME INCREASE IN OVER-LAND CONVECTION IS LIKELY DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY...THOUGH SURFACE HEATING WILL BE MODULATED
SOMEWHAT BY NEWD EXTENDING OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND ASSOCIATED HIGH
CLOUDS SPREADING OVER FROM WILMA. MLCAPE VALUES WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM 1000-2000 J/KG. TROPICAL AIR MASS ALONG/SOUTH OF SURFACE FRONT
/PW VALUES AROUND 2 IN AND DEEP-LAYER MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES
WILL SUPPORT GENERALLY ISOLATED/SCATTERED NON-SEVERE TSTMS UNTIL
EFFECTS OF WILMA CAN BE FELT MORE DIRECTLY LATER IN THE PERIOD.

OUTER BANDS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPACT THE LOWER KEYS BY MID AFTERNOON
AND THE SWRN FL PENINSULA BY EARLY EVENING. COINCIDENT INCREASE IN
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR MAGNITUDE AND HODOGRAPH CURVATURE SUGGEST POTENTIAL
FOR EMBEDDED ROTATING STORMS WITH POSSIBLE TORNADOES. INTERACTIONS
BETWEEN TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTER BANDS WITH LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL FL BY THIS EVENING MAY ALSO PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONE GENERATION AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
CAREFULLY...ESPECIALLY IF INDIVIDUAL CELLS CAN TRACK LARGELY
PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL ZONE.

...SWRN TX INTO SRN ROCKIES...
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY WITH AFTERNOON HEATING IN
VICINITY OF MID-LEVEL LOW CENTER AND OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN AREAS OF
CENTRAL AZ. A WEAK SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AXIS EXISTS ACROSS FAR
SWRN TX NWWD INTO FAR SRN NM...ASSOCIATED WITH LOW TO MID 50S
DEWPOINTS. AS FRONT SURGES INTO REGION THIS AFTERNOON...ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE
ALONG AN AXIS FROM THE SACRAMENTO MTNS SEWD INTO FAR WRN TX.
LASTLY...WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY NWD WITHIN FRONTAL ZONE MAY ALLOW
FOR A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SERN NM AND THE REMAINDER OF
SWRN TX...DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
MINIMAL MUCAPE /AOB 500 J/KG/ IN MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS
HAIL WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A THREAT OWING TO RELATIVELY WEAK
CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS.

..BANACOS/THOMPSON.. 10/23/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.