[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 230449
SWODY1
SPC AC 230447

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1147 PM CDT SAT OCT 22 2005

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW
SRQ 45 NE MLB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WSW CTY 35 SE SSI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW ACK 20 WSW BOS
25 W PWM 25 N EPM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE DMN 40 NW SAD
50 SW PRC 25 W GCN 25 NW GUP 20 WSW ABQ 30 SSE 4CR 30 SSE ROW 45 S
BGS 50 SW SJT 45 WNW DRT.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTN THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL/SRN FL PEN...

CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS BECOMING PRETTY MUCH CONFINED TO THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/SOUTHERN PLATEAU FOR
THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  INITIAL COLD INTRUSION INTO THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES HAS OVERSPREAD ALL BUT THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA...DRYING/STABILIZING MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
STATES.  MODELS SUGGEST LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THIS REGION
WILL UNDERGO FURTHER AMPLIFICATION TODAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY IN
RESPONSE TO STRONG DIGGING SHORT WAVE TROUGH.

SMALLER SCALE FEATURE IS NOW DIGGING INTO THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEYS...AND PROGGED TO CONTINUE
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO/TENNESSEE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEYS BY 12Z MONDAY. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY REINFORCING COLD
FRONT INTO THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...AND MUCH OF THE SOUTH
CENTRAL UNITED STATES.

MODELS VARY WITH REGARD TO INFLUENCE OF EVOLVING FLOW REGIME EAST OF
THE ROCKIES ON SOUTHERN BRANCH CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLATEAU...BUT IT SEEMS LIKELY TO CONTRIBUTE TO NORTHEASTWARD
ACCELERATION OF HURRICANE WILMA AWAY FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. 
LATTER FEATURE IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO APPROACH SOUTHWESTERN
FLORIDA COASTAL AREAS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.

...FLORIDA PENINSULA...
STALLED FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY AND TONIGHT. 
HOWEVER...PRIMARY SEVERE POTENTIAL SEEMS TO EXIST IN POTENTIALLY
UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS TO THE SOUTH. MOISTURE CONTENT IS
ALREADY VERY HIGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA...WITH SURFACE DEW
POINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.  DAYTIME HEATING IS EXPECTED TO
CONTRIBUTE TO MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG...AND SCATTERED
STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THOUGH DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK...STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL
FLOW/SHEAR MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TORNADO
POTENTIAL IN TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. RISK FOR
TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
WITH APPROACH OF WILMA...AND INLAND PROGRESSION OF OUTER BANDS
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.

...SOUTHERN PLATEAU/RIO GRANDE VALLEY...
SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW MAY SUPPORT SCATTERED STORMS NEAR THE
MOGOLLON RIM AND MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO.  OTHER STORMS
APPEAR POSSIBLE IN THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS...AS COLD FRONT SURGES
INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. STRONGEST HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION SEEM LIKELY TO SUPPORT
MOST VIGOROUS STORMS SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

..KERR.. 10/23/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.