[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 230025
SWODY1
SPC AC 230023

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0723 PM CDT SAT OCT 22 2005

VALID 230100Z - 231200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S AQQ 50 ENE SSI
...CONT... 40 ESE CRE 50 ESE ORF ...CONT... 50 E SBY ABE MSV 30 W
AUG 25 ESE EPM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM P38 40 E MLF 40 WSW
4HV 55 ENE INW 30 SSW SOW 15 E PHX 20 S IGM 40 NNW IGM P38.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

STRONGEST IMPULSE...EMBEDDED WITHIN BROAD CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW REGIME
WHICH HAS ENCOMPASSED MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S... WILL
CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEYS
TONIGHT.  AS THIS OCCURS...SOMEWHAT WEAKER SHORT WAVE/JET STREAK
WILL LIFT FROM MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS INTO NEW ENGLAND AND
ADJACENT COASTAL AREAS.  THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DEEPENING
SURFACE CYCLONE NEAR THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST...AND TRAILING
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY PROGRESS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.  FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...ON SOUTHERN FRINGE OF STRONGER
WESTERLIES...AHEAD OF TROPICAL CYCLONE /HURRICANE WILMA/ WHICH IS
SLOWLY BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

IN THE WEST...WHILE RIDGING REMAINS STRONG ACROSS THE NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...LITTLE IF ANY EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF WEAK 
SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS ARIZONA.

...MID/NORTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS...
AS OF EARLY EVENING...STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING HAS GENERALLY BEEN
CONFINED TO EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET...NORTH/WEST OF SURFACE FRONTAL
ZONE ALONG THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COASTS.  HOWEVER...AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH PIVOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...INCREASE IN PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED OFFSHORE.  SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD
BECOME QUITE STRONG IN WARM SECTOR OF DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW...BUT
THIS SEEMS MOST LIKELY TO REMAIN SOUTH/EAST OF CAP COD AND ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS.

...FLORIDA...
SURFACE FRONT IS JUST NOW BEGINNING TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD INTO/THROUGH
NORTHERN FLORIDA.  PRIMARY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING IN WEAK
PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA...AND MAY BE
SLOW TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. CONVECTION COULD STILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PENINSULA LATER THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT...WITH SHOWERS/STORMS REMAINING ISOLATED IN
TROPICAL BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA.

...SOUTHERN PLATEAU...
WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN CONFINED TO THE VICINITY OF
MID-LEVEL COLD POOL/CIRCULATION CENTER OF CLOSED LOW.  FORCING WITH
THIS FEATURE MAY MAINTAIN CONVECTION THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL DIMINISH AFTER DARK WITH LOSS OF SURFACE
HEATING.

..KERR.. 10/23/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.