[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 221953
SWODY1
SPC AC 221952

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0252 PM CDT SAT OCT 22 2005

VALID 222000Z - 231200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ESE
ILM 25 SE RWI 55 S RIC 40 NNW ORF 35 W WAL 30 E WAL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE DUG 35 WSW SVC
25 N TCS 35 NNW BGS 40 SW SJT 45 NW DRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W PRC 60 NNE TRM
55 NNE DAG 40 NNW DRA 30 N MLF 30 WNW 4HV 25 SW 4BL 25 N INW 20 W
PRC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW AQQ 30 SSW AYS
35 NNE SAV 30 SW FLO 25 SW RDU 15 ESE CHO 20 SSE CXY 20 ESE AVP 10
WNW PSF 15 ESE PSM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN NC AND SERN VA...

...ERN NC AND SERN VA...
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WAS
GRADUALLY OVERTAKING THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGHS SITUATED ACROSS COASTAL
NC/VA. AIR MASS AHEAD OF THESE TROUGHS/FRONTS HAS RECOVERED FROM
MORNING CONVECTION/CLOUDS AND MLCAPES RANGE FROM 500-1000 J/KG. 
THOUGH THE STRONGEST DCVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION...AT LEAST WEAK HEIGHT FALLS
WILL GRAZE THE WARM SECTOR THIS AFTN/EVE.  SW-NE ORIENTED CU STREETS
ALREADY SHOW SIGNS OF GROWING AND ISOLD TSTMS COULD INITIATE ALONG
THE COLD FRONT/TROUGHS AS THE ENHANCED UVV MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. 
GIVEN A TSTM...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  ACTIVITY
SHOULD MOVE QUICKLY OFFSHORE DURING THE EVENING.

...CNTRL/SRN FL...
HIGH CLOUD CANOPY HAS BEEN SUFFICIENTLY THIN ACROSS CNTRL/SRN FL TO
ALLOW SUBSTANTIAL BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING.  SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE
MID 70S AND TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO
MLCAPES OF 1800-2800 J/KG.  MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A REMNANT FRONT
SITUATED ACROSS CNTRL FL AND CONVERGENCE/WEAK CINH APPARENTLY ARE
ENOUGH FOR TSTM INITIATION FROM VCNTY KTPA EWD TO S OF KMLB.  VWP
DATA SUGGESTS THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS SOMEWHAT WEAK TO SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED STORMS.  BUT...COMBINATION OF VERY
UNSTABLE/MOIST CONDITIONS MAY SUPPORT ISOLD WET MICROBURSTS WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS.  OTHER STORMS MAY FORM ALONG SEABREEZES ACROSS
ECNTRL/SERN FL LATER THIS AFTN.

..RACY.. 10/22/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.