[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 221627
SWODY1
SPC AC 221625

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 AM CDT SAT OCT 22 2005

VALID 221630Z - 231200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE
ILM 20 WNW GSB 55 N RWI 30 E RIC 35 W WAL 30 E WAL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE DUG 35 WSW SVC
25 N TCS 35 NNW BGS 40 SW SJT 45 NW DRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W PRC 60 NNE TRM
55 NNE DAG 40 NNW DRA 30 N MLF 30 WNW 4HV 25 SW 4BL 25 N INW 20 W
PRC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W AQQ 20 NNE VLD
35 NNW SAV 30 SW FLO 30 N SOP 10 WNW CHO 10 WSW CXY 10 E AVP 10 WNW
PSF 15 ESE PSM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF ERN NC AND SE
VA...

...SYNOPSIS...
AMPLIFYING TROUGH NOW OVER WRN MN EXPECTED TO DROP SE INTO THE MID
MS VLY DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS AS LEAD SPEED MAX NOW OVER MIDDLE TN
SWEEPS RAPIDLY ENE OFF THE DELMARVA CST.  AT LWR LEVELS...DIFFUSE
SURFACE WAVE NOW EXTENDING FROM CNTRL NC TO THE DELMARVA PENINSULA 
SHOULD BECOME BETTER DEFINED AND DEEPEN AS IT CONTINUES NE OFF THE
NJ CST TONIGHT.  SURFACE PATTERN LIKELY WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT
COMPLICATED BY PRESENCE OF RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING NEWD
FROM PIEDMONT NC.

...ERN NC/SERN VA...
SURFACE HEATING OF SEASONABLY MOIST AIR MASS WILL YIELD MODERATE 
INSTABILITY /MLCAPE TO 1000 J PER KG/ THIS AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF
ERN NC AND EXTREME SE VA...S AND E OF PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
RAIN-COOLED BOUNDARY...AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT NOW CROSSING THE NC
MOUNTAINS.  LOW AMPLITUDE OF UPR FLOW PATTERN WILL MINIMIZE
CONVERGENCE ALONG BOTH THE COLD FRONT AND ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. 
BUT COMBINATION OF INCREASED FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
APPROACHING SPEED MAX...AND FAVORABLY TIMED DIURNAL CYCLE...MAY
PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER ERN NC AND
SE VA LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

GIVEN 60-70 KT LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY DEEP SHEAR AND QUALITY
OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 60S F/...ANY
SUSTAINED STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL QUICKLY ASSUME SUPERCELL
STRUCTURE AND COULD YIELD HAIL/DAMAGING WIND.  THE SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD DIMINISH RAPIDLY THIS EVENING AS FORCING FOR ASCENT SHIFTS E
INTO THE ATLANTIC AND BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS.

...FL PENINSULA...
A BAND OF STRONG STORMS MAY EVOLVE LATER TODAY/TONIGHT OVER CNTRL
FL...INVOF STRENGTHENING FRONT STALLING OVER REGION.  RELATIVELY
WEAK DEEP SHEAR AND WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOULD MITIGATE ANY 
ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT DESPITE PRESENCE OF RICH/DEEP TROPICAL
INFLOW.

..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 10/22/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.