[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 221238
SWODY1
SPC AC 221237

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0737 AM CDT SAT OCT 22 2005

VALID 221300Z - 231200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE
ILM 20 WNW GSB 55 N RWI 30 E RIC 35 W WAL 30 E WAL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE DUG 35 SSE SAD
65 SW SOW 30 WSW PRC 40 WNW EED 40 SSW DRA 35 NNE DRA 15 SSW CDC 45
SE U17 45 NW 4SL 10 SE LVS 35 ESE CVS 50 N BGS 35 NW SJT 65 N DRT 25
W DRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 W CTY 35 SSW AYS
40 S AGS 20 S GSP 30 N HKY 30 N SSU 30 NNW AOO 10 WNW AVP BAF 60 NNE
HYA.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NE NC AND
SE VA....

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE SCALE PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS IS CHARACTERIZED BY A DEEPENING
TROUGH OVER THE MS VALLEY AND AN UPSTREAM RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
GREAT BASIN NWD TO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES.  A QUASI-STATIONARY LOW IS
LOCATED S OF THE RIDGE OVER THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...WHILE THE
MAIN CONVECTIVE THREATS TODAY WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH EMBEDDED SPEED
MAXIMA PROGRESSING THROUGH THE DEEPENING MS VALLEY TROUGH TO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION.

...ERN CAROLINAS/SERN VA...
A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS MOVED OFF THE NC COAST IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A LEAD MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS
REMAIN IN THE 60S ACROSS ERN SC/NC TO THE S OF A PRECIPITATION
REINFORCED FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN NC...AND E OF A COLD FRONT
MOVING EWD INTO CENTRAL SC AND SE GA.  THE E-W BOUNDARY ACROSS NC
SHOULD LIFT NWD INTO VA TIDEWATER LATER TODAY AS SURFACE PRESSURES
FALL IN ADVANCE OF A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH RACING EWD FROM THE MO
BOOTHEEL AREA...WHILE THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD TO THE ATLANTIC
COAST BY LATE EVENING. THIS WILL LEAVE A NARROW WARM SECTOR AND THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON FROM SE VA INTO ERN NC.

FORECAST AND MODIFIED OBSERVED SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR
AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG BASED ON TEMPERATURES OF
75-80 F AND DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S.  ADDITIONALLY...DEEP LAYER
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED BOWING SEGMENTS AND
SUPERCELLS.  GIVEN THE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND WEAK TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT FORM.

..THOMPSON/BANACOS.. 10/22/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.