[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 220534
SWODY1
SPC AC 220533

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1233 AM CDT SAT OCT 22 2005

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE DUG 35 SSE SAD
65 SW SOW 30 WSW PRC 40 WNW EED 40 SSW DRA 35 NNE DRA 15 SSW CDC 45
SE U17 45 NW 4SL 10 SE LVS 35 ESE CVS 50 N BGS 35 NW SJT 65 N DRT 25
W DRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 W CTY 35 SSW AYS
40 S AGS 20 S GSP 30 N HKY 30 N SSU 30 NNW AOO 10 WNW AVP BAF 60 NNE
HYA.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

LOW-LEVEL COLD INTRUSION INTO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES HAS PROGRESSED
THROUGH ALL BUT SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS...WITH SURFACE FRONTAL
ZONE REMAINING STALLED FROM THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
INTO SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS.  BOUNDARY SHOULD FINALLY
PROGRESS OFF CAROLINA/GEORGIA COASTAL AREAS...AND THROUGH THE
NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA....TODAY INTO TONIGHT...AS A LARGE-SCALE
UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO EVOLVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN UNITED STATES.

LATEST NAM/GFS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH REGARD TO THE EVOLUTION/
PROGRESSION OF SHORT WAVE IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS BROAD
CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW REGIME.  MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE IS PROGGED TO
DIG FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI/LOWER
MISSOURI VALLEY...WELL TO THE NORTH/WEST OF POLAR FRONT. 
HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST A SIGNIFICANT...BUT WEAKER...DOWNSTREAM
SHORT WAVE WILL RAPIDLY LIFT OUT OF THE LOWER OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY
TODAY...EVENTUALLY CONTRIBUTING TO LOW-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...MUCH OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION
WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE IN THE NORTHERN
BRANCH OF POLAR WESTERLIES.  HOWEVER...A WEAKENING SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE EAST OF THE LOWER COLORADO VALLEY INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU.

...SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES...
LACK OF STRONGER SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG FRONTAL ZONE IN THE
LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE A
PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR WITH REGARD TO SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS/SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA.  MODELS SUGGEST STRONGER MID/UPPER
FORCING WILL BE FOCUSED NORTH OF SURFACE FRONT BY MID DAY...WITH
BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHIFTING OFFSHORE AS WESTERLY COMPONENT TO
LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. HOWEVER...MID- LEVEL
COOLING/DAYTIME HEATING COULD STILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG FRONT EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.  IF THIS OCCURS...SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG CYCLONIC
MID/UPPER FLOW SUPPORTS AT LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES...SHIFTING FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA/NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA INTO COASTAL
AREAS BY 22/23Z.

...FLORIDA...
WITH SURFACE FRONT NOT PROGGED INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
PENINSULA UNTIL AFTER DARK...MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH LOWER/MID 70S
DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.

...SOUTHWEST...
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION
TODAY...BUT PROBABILITIES OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE LOWER END
DUE TO RELATIVELY DRY LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.

..KERR/BANACOS.. 10/22/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.