[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 220051
SWODY1
SPC AC 220049

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0749 PM CDT FRI OCT 21 2005

VALID 220100Z - 221200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E
SSI 15 NNW SSI 65 N AYS 50 WSW AGS 25 SSE SPA 35 ENE CLT 20 NW GSB
40 NE EWN 40 ENE HSE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SW PFN MAI 50 ENE
ABY 40 NNW ABY TOI SEM 15 S GAD 10 E CHA 25 ESE CSV 30 WNW LOZ 35
ENE LEX 55 WNW HTS HLG HGR 45 SSE ACY.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES....

LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION REGIME ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE NATION FROM
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE VICINITY OF THE APPALACHIANS...AND
EVOLUTION OF LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH IS UNDERWAY.  WHILE MOST
SIGNIFICANT EMBEDDED IMPULSE IS JUST NOW DIGGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER...DOWNSTREAM SHORT WAVE/JET STREAK IS
PROGRESSING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS SUGGEST LATTER
FEATURE WILL CONTINUE INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY 12Z SATURDAY. 
THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DEEPENING OF SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/UPPER OHIO VALLEY...AND PERHAPS WEAK WAVE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS.  WHILE FRONT REMAINS STALLED EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS
...SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD PROGRESS THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINING 
CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COASTAL AREAS OVERNIGHT.

...SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES...
ONSET OF BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING THIS EVENING...AND LACK OF STRONGER
SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG FRONTAL ZONE OVERNIGHT...ARE PRIMARY
LIMITING FACTORS TO MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS.  SCATTERED VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING IN
RESPONSE TO WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALREADY PROGRESSING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THIS IS OCCURRING IN MOISTENING LOW-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT ASSOCIATED WITH INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO/ WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO
MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG.  GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF
INSTABILITY...SHEAR PROFILES ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATELY STRONG...
AND STRENGTHENING...CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF
MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION...ENHANCING RISK OF LARGE HAIL WITH
STRONGER STORMS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MODELS SUGGEST SOME
STRENGTHENING OF SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF THE
CAROLINAS...WHICH COULD PROVIDE FORCING/FOCUS FOR CONTINUING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  WHILE NOCTURNAL INVERSION LAYER IN WARM
SECTOR MAY MINIMIZE DAMAGING WIND/TORNADO THREAT...RISK OF LARGE
HAIL IN STRONGER STORMS MAY BE MAINTAINED.

..KERR.. 10/22/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.