[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 211953
SWODY1
SPC AC 211951

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0251 PM CDT FRI OCT 21 2005

VALID 212000Z - 221200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSW BVE 35 SE MEI
25 NNE GAD 50 SW CKV 40 NNW HOP 25 NW SDF 15 W DAY 30 SE MFD 35 E
AOO 35 ESE NEL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE LIC 40 ESE CYS
40 WSW CDR 25 ENE CDR 35 WSW VTN 15 E LBF 50 SE GLD 10 ESE LIC.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SRN APPALACHIANS...
LATEST MESOANALYSIS PLACES A 1008 MB LOW OVER SCNTRL KY WITH A COLD
FRONT TRAILING SWWD INTO CNTRL AL AND A WARM FRONT ARCING FROM ERN
KY TO WRN NC...THEN NEWD ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER.  A NARROW AXIS OF
MLCAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG EXISTS JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHERE
SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE IN THE LOWER 60S BENEATH MODEST MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES.  A BROKEN LINE OF TSTMS HAS MANAGED TO FORM ALONG THE
FRONT WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS HEATED THE STRONGEST TODAY. 
TSTMS MAY INCREASE THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS WEAK HEIGHT FALLS
ACCOMPANYING A TN VLY DISTURBANCE SPREAD ENEWD.  VERTICAL SHEAR OF
35-45 KTS WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS AND ISOLD DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND PERHAPS HAIL COULD OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SERN KY
COALFIELDS...ERN TN...WRN NC...NERN AL AND NWRN GA.

...SERN GA TO THE ERN SC...
SCATTERED TSTMS HAVE INITIATED WITHIN NE-SW ORIENTED CU STREETS
ACROSS SERN GA AND ERN SC THIS AFTN.  STRONGEST STORMS APPEAR TO BE
FAVORING THE SEABREEZE WHERE STRONGER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE EXISTS. 
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER
60S ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES TO 1500 J/KG.  RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THAT H7-H5 TEMPERATURES ARE SOMEWHAT WARM AND MAY BE INHIBITING
UPDRAFT STRENGTH ASIDE FROM WHERE STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FORCING EXISTS.
 VERTICAL SHEAR OF 40 KTS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING STORMS AND
IF ORGANIZED CLUSTERS/LINES CAN EVOLVE...ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT.  WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT ANTICIPATED...AND STORMS SHOULD LARGELY FOLLOW THE DIURNAL CYCLE
/DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET/.

..RACY.. 10/21/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.