[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 211626
SWODY1
SPC AC 211625

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 AM CDT FRI OCT 21 2005

VALID 211630Z - 221200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSW BVE 45 SE MEI
30 ENE PAH 15 NE DNV 30 SE FDY 20 ESE PSB 35 ESE NEL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE LIC 40 ESE CYS
40 WSW CDR 25 ENE CDR 35 WSW VTN 15 E LBF 50 SE GLD 10 ESE LIC.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH MOVING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS.  THIS FEATURE WILL AFFECT THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION AND CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  A
PERSISTENT WEDGE OF COOLER/MORE STABLE AIR REMAINS ACROSS VA AND
NORTHERN NC...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE THREAT OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION
IN THAT REGION.  HOWEVER...RELATIVELY STRONG DAYTIME HEATING IS
OCCURRING OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES.  AFTERNOON
MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG ARE EXPECTED...ALONG WITH FAVORABLE
DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS.

PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INTENSIFY
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST KY AND EASTERN TN. 
THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
DURING THE EVENING.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SUFFICIENTLY STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND CAPE VALUES FOR THE POTENTIAL OF HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS IN STRONGER CELLS.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS DIURNAL COOLING OCCURS.

OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP/INTENSIFY THIS EVENING/TONIGHT AS AFFECTS
OF UPPER TROUGH SPREAD INTO THE CAROLINAS.  STRONG WIND FIELDS WILL
SUPPORT A RISK OF LOCAL WIND DAMAGE IN STRONGEST STORMS.  CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT PROBABILITY OF ORGANIZED SEVERE ACTIVITY IS
RATHER LOW.

..HART/TAYLOR.. 10/21/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.