[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 211250
SWODY1
SPC AC 211249

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0749 AM CDT FRI OCT 21 2005

VALID 211300Z - 221200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 S BVE 45 SE MEI 25
SSW EVV 30 W IND 45 ENE MIE 15 WSW AOO 40 ESE ACY.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY WILL PROGRESS
EWD TODAY TO THE APPALACHIANS AND WEAKEN WITHIN A CONFLUENT FLOW
REGIME.  UPSTREAM...A NRN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS
THIS MORNING WILL MOVE QUICKLY SEWD TO THE MID MS VALLEY BY EARLY
SATURDAY...ON THE PERIPHERY OF A MID LEVEL LOW THAT WILL AMPLIFY
OVER MANITOBA AND MN.  A SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS KY TODAY TO SE OH/WV TONIGHT ALONG
A SL0W-MOVING BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL KY TO
NC...WHILE A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND
GULF COAST STATES.  E OF THE APPALACHIANS...THE STALLED BAROCLINIC
ZONE ACROSS NC/SE VA WILL DRIFT NWD TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO PRESSURE
FALLS DOWNSTREAM FROM THE AMPLIFYING MS VALLEY MID LEVEL TROUGH.

...TN/KY THIS AFTERNOON...
THOUGH L0W-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS SOMEWHAT LIMITED N OF THE GULF
COAST AND W OF THE APPALACHIANS...DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT
AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF 750-1250 J/KG ACROSS NE AL/ERN TN/KY. 
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/ASCENT WILL BE FOCUSED IN ADVANCE OF THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH AND NEAR THE SURFACE LOW DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHEN
CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL KY/ERN TN.  DEEP
LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
FOR SUPERCELLS...WHICH MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND
ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS BEFORE CONVECTION WEAKENS
LATER THIS EVENING.

...SE GA TO SRN VA...
A PLUME OF RICH LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE NOW OVER FL/SE GA WILL SPREAD
NNEWD OVER THE CENTRAL/ERN CAROLINAS THROUGH TONIGHT.  THIS MOISTURE
...ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG.  A FEW STORMS MAY FORM TODAY
WITHIN THE ADVANCING MOISTURE PLUME...BUT RATHER WEAK LOW-LEVEL
FLOW/SHEAR AND MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST THAT ANY
SEVERE STORM THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL AT BEST.  FARTHER N...THE
LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS NC/SRN VA MAY FOCUS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND ASSOCIATED
WAA BEGINS TO INCREASE.  

...LOWER FL KEYS...
THE OUTER NERN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE WILMA WILL BRUSH THE
LOWER KEYS TODAY INTO TONIGHT...THOUGH NWD PROGRESSION OF THE BANDS
SHOULD BE VERY SLOW.  THE 12Z EYW SOUNDING REVEALS MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND A VERY MOIST PROFILE...WITH DEEP VEERING 25 KT WINDS
AND A CURVED HODOGRAPH.  THIS ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT A FEW MARGINAL
SUPERCELL STORMS CLOSE TO THE LOWER KEYS...BUT THE TORNADO THREAT
APPEARS TOO MARGINAL FOR AN OUTLOOK AREA AT THIS TIME.

..THOMPSON/CROSBIE.. 10/21/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.