[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 201954
SWODY1
SPC AC 201952

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0252 PM CDT THU OCT 20 2005

VALID 202000Z - 211200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW
JEF 35 NW COU 25 NW ALN 20 SSE MDH 40 S CGI 30 NW ARG 25 NE HRO 40 E
SGF 30 WSW JEF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW AQQ 25 W TLH 20
SE VLD 60 ESE JAX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 ENE ECG 25 WSW RDU
10 ESE AVL 30 SW CSV 50 E MKL 15 ESE MEM 30 NE PBF 25 W LIT 55 N HOT
35 NNE HRO 35 WNW TBN 45 S SZL 45 S OJC 25 ESE TOP 25 NNW STJ 35 E
OTM 50 SW SBN 35 NNE DAY 35 NE ZZV 25 NE HGR 60 SSE ACY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S BIL 25 NNW SHR
30 NE 81V 25 WNW RAP 30 SW RAP 20 N BFF 30 WSW BFF 45 NE LAR 50 NNW
LAR 50 NNW RWL 10 SSW RIW 20 SW COD 50 NNW COD 30 S BIL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OZARKS AND
MID-MS VLY...

...OZARKS/MID-MS VLY AREA...
AT MID-AFTN...A 1007 MB SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER CNTRL MO WITH A
WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD INTO THE OH VLY AND A COLD FRONT SWD
THROUGH THE KSGF AREA INTO NERN TX.

HIGH-BASED TSTMS TIED TO THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT CONTINUE TO MOVE
NEWD THROUGH EXTREME SERN MO AND SCNTRL IL.  THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN INTENSITY WITH THESE TSTMS...BUT MUCAPES LESS THAN 500
J/KG SHOULD KEEP HAIL/WIND THREATS ISOLD.

FARTHER W...THE WARM LAYER JUST BELOW 700 MB AND LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL
BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING HAVE LIKELY KEPT SURFACE BASED TSTM
INITIATION AT BAY THUS FAR...DESPITE STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT.  PER
VSBL SATL...THE CU FIELD WAS BECOMING MORE DEFINED ALONG THE PRIMARY
COLD FRONT FROM CNTRL MO INTO THE OZARKS.  COMBINATION OF COOLING
ALOFT AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO ERODE THE WARM
LAYER/FORCE PARCELS TO LFC YET THIS AFTN/EVE.  IF THIS OCCURS...
STRONGER TSTMS MAY RESULT GIVEN MLCAPE OF 500 J/KG AND FAVORABLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.  MAIN THREATS WOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. GIVEN ONGOING CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK/SEVERE PROBABILITIES...
THE THREAT APPEARS SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN CURRENT FORECAST WITH ONLY
MINOR CHANGES.

..RACY.. 10/20/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.