[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 201604
SWODY1
SPC AC 201603

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1103 AM CDT THU OCT 20 2005

VALID 201630Z - 211200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S
SZL 45 NW COU 25 NW ALN 20 SSE MDH 20 E JBR 25 NNW LIT 60 E FSM 25
NNE HRO 35 S SZL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW AQQ 25 W TLH 20
SE VLD 60 ESE JAX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 ENE ECG 25 WSW RDU
10 ESE AVL 30 SW CSV 50 E MKL MEM 35 NE ELD 30 ESE TXK 20 NW TXK 25
E PGO 25 S UMN 40 NNE JLN 30 NNW CNU 25 NW EMP 25 WNW FNB 35 W OTM
50 SW SBN 35 NNE DAY 35 NE ZZV 25 NE HGR 60 SSE ACY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S BIL 25 NNW SHR
30 NE 81V 25 WNW RAP 30 SW RAP 20 N BFF 30 WSW BFF 45 NE LAR 50 NNW
LAR 50 NNW RWL 10 SSW RIW 20 SW COD 50 NNW COD 30 S BIL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF MO AND NRN
AR...

...MID MS RIVER VALLEY...
STRONG UPPER LOW NOW NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED OVER W-CENTRAL MO
WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EWD AS AN OPEN-WAVE INTO THE OH RIVER
VALLEY TODAY.  SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING EWD FROM THE LOW CENTER WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY INTO SRN IL AND NRN KY/WV THIS AFTERNOON...
WITH AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY LIKELY DEVELOPING WITHIN WARM
SECTOR.  THOUGH AIR MASS WILL REMAIN RATHER DRY /I.E. SURFACE DEW
POINTS IN THE 50S/...AFTERNOON HEATING AND COOLING MID LEVELS NEAR
PRIMARY COLD POCKET ALOFT SHOULD SUPPORT 1000-1500 J/KG SBCAPES IN
WAKE OF CONVECTION ONGOING THIS MORNING.  MOST LIKELY AREA OF
AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR NEAR SURFACE COLD FRONT EXPECTED
TO PUSH STEADILY EWD INTO CENTRAL MO/NRN AR BY PEAK HEATING.  SHEAR
IS FORECAST TO REMAIN QUITE STRONG AS 50+ KT WLY MID LEVEL JET
OVERSPREADS SRN MO/NRN AR...SUGGESTING STRONGER STORMS WILL ORGANIZE
INTO MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND SUPERCELLS.  SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN
GREATER ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT WHERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE SURFACE-BASED.  THOUGH ANY STORM WHICH CAN ANCHOR NEAR THE
FRONT WILL HAVE A THREAT OF TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY INVOF THE LOW
CENTER.  EXPECT STORMS WILL QUICKLY BECOME ELEVATED AS THEY SHIFT
NORTH OF THE FRONT.  IN ADDITION...STORMS NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY FORM INTO SMALL LINES/CLUSTERS GIVEN
MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW.  THUS...EXPECT PRIMARY THREATS OF LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON WITH THREAT
DIMINISHING EAST OF THE MS RIVER AFTER SUNSET.

..EVANS/JEWELL.. 10/20/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.