[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 210049
SWODY1
SPC AC 210047

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0747 PM CDT THU OCT 20 2005

VALID 210100Z - 211200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S ORF ECG 20 NW
GSO LOZ HOP 30 NE JBR UNO TBN COU 25 NNW UIN 20 WNW PIA 45 NW MIE
ZZV MGW 45 WSW DCA 15 S ORF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SW PFN 25 W TLH 20
SE VLD 60 ESE JAX.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EASTWARD TO MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES...
PRIMARY ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI/ 
LOWER OHIO VALLEY IS OCCURRING IN RESPONSE TO ENHANCED ISENTROPIC
ASCENT DOWNSTREAM OF WEAKENING MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CURRENTLY
MIGRATING ACROSS MISSOURI.  MODELS INDICATE THIS FEATURE WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT PROGRESSES INTO CONFLUENT UPPER FLOW REGIME
ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT.  HOWEVER...FORCING IN EXIT
REGION OF LINGERING MID-LEVEL JET STREAK IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN
SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG STALLED
FRONTAL ZONE...ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION...AS FAR EAST  AS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  ONGOING
WEAK CONVECTION IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...ACROSS
VIRGINIA...SEEMS LIKELY TO DIMINISH SHORTLY AS LOWER-LEVELS
COOL/STABILIZE WITH LOSS OF HEATING.

...FLORIDA...
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE PENINSULA IS ALREADY COOLING AND
BEGINNING TO STABILIZE.  AS THIS PROCESS CONTINUES...ONGOING
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKELY TO DIMINISH BY THE
03-04Z TIME FRAME.

..KERR.. 10/21/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.