[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 080427
SWODY1
SPC AC 080425

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 PM CDT FRI OCT 07 2005

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW AQQ 20 NW MGR
55 E CHA 10 ENE TRI 40 NNW SSU 20 SSW AOO 35 ESE BGM 35 NNE PSF 50
ESE PWM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 SSW GBN 35 NNW GBN
40 WSW PRC 25 W SGU 50 WNW P38 45 S U31 10 N LOL 60 WNW WMC 85 WNW
OWY BKE 15 NNE GEG 45 N 3TH 70 SSW CTB 15 ENE 3DU 10 NW DLN 20 W WEY
40 SSW JAC 35 NNE EVW 45 WSW RKS 50 NNW RWL 45 SW DGW 20 ESE 4FC 30
NNE ALS 35 ESE LVS 35 W CNM 30 S ELP.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL LIFT NEWD AND DEAMPLIFY
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. DEEP LAYER SLY FLOW
AND EXTENSIVE FETCH OF TROPICAL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPINGE UPON A STALLED FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE CNTRL/SRN
APPALACHIANS INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND. HEAVY RAIN WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION AS THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES.

IN THE WEST...A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TODAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. DESPITE STRONG HEIGHT
FALLS WITH THIS SYSTEM...MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN
LIMITED IN WAKE OF PRIOR FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND
SRN ROCKIES.

...ATLANTIC SEABOARD...
AS MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL LIFTS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON IT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND ACCELERATE NEWD OVER ERN NC.
A BELT OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND WEAK SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER IMPULSE COULD PROVIDE FOCUS/FORCING NECESSARY FOR
ISOLATED TORNADO/DAMAGING WIND THREAT IN TROPICAL AIR MASS FROM THE
ERN CAROLINAS TO THE DELMARVA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LIMITED
INSTABILITY SHOULD RESTRICT HIGHER SEVERE POTENTIAL BUT BEST CHANCE
FOR AN ORGANIZED STORM OR TWO SHOULD OCCUR EARLY IN THE PERIOD.

...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
STRONG COOLING IN EXIT REGION OF JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING
UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
SOME MOISTENING ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. ISOLD TSTMS MAY INITIATE
DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS...BEFORE INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND
SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL LOW AND
OROGRAPHIC LIFT MAY MAINTAIN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE NIGHT
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. DESPITE MEAGER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...
SUFFICIENT DYNAMIC FORCING AND DESTABILIZATION SHOULD OCCUR TO
SUPPORT A COUPLE OF MARGINAL HAIL EVENTS AND/OR PERHAPS A DAMAGING
DOWNBURST OR TWO.

..CARBIN/JEWELL.. 10/08/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.