[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 080029
SWODY1
SPC AC 080028

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0728 PM CDT FRI OCT 07 2005

VALID 080100Z - 081200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE PNS 20 SSE TOI
20 WSW ATL 20 W AVL 35 SW SHD 20 SE MRB 30 NNW ILG 25 SE MSV 30 N
POU 15 NNE ORH 15 E CON 30 W AUG 25 NNE 3B1 40 WNW HUL 15 ENE CAR.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
EXTENSIVE WARM/MOIST CONVEYOR BELT ON THE ERN FLANK OF BROAD
STATIONARY TROUGH/LOW OVER THE NERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT
TROPICAL MOISTURE NWD FROM THE CARIBBEAN TO NEW ENGLAND. FRONTAL AND
OROGRAPHIC LIFT WITHIN THIS MOIST AIR MASS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE
PRODUCTION OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC REGIONS NEWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH SATURDAY.

...SOUTHEAST...
SMALLER SCALE PERTURBATIONS EMANATING FROM THE GULF TROUGH/LOW
CONTINUE TO TRACK INLAND FROM NRN FL AND GA TO THE CAROLINAS. MSAS
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS DEPICTED A COUPLE OF WEAK SURFACE CIRCULATIONS
POSSIBLY IN RESPONSE TO THE MID/UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATIONS. ONE
CONVERGENT CIRCULATION WAS LOCATED NEAR APALACHEE BAY OVER NRN
FL...ANOTHER WAS NEAR THE GA/SC BORDER. SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND BACKED SURFACE FLOW AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES SHOULD MAINTAIN
AN AREA OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR NWD INTO SERN NC THROUGH
TONIGHT. ANY TSTMS DEVELOPING IN VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT COULD
ACQUIRE LOW LEVEL ROTATION POSSIBLY LEADING TO A BRIEF ISOLATED
TORNADO. HOWEVER...RELATIVELY WEAK FORCING AND LIMITED INSTABILITY
SHOULD RESTRICT MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL OVER THE
REGION.

...OUTER BANKS TO VA CAPES...
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW OF VERY MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH WARM RAIN PROCESSES LEADING TO HEAVY TROPICAL SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW TSTMS. MHX EVENING RAOB AND MHX AND AKQ VWP DATA WERE
SHOWING 30-40KT SLY FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER RESULTING IN 0-1KM
SRH VALUES AROUND 150 M2/S2 FOR CELLS MOVING SLOWLY NWD. LATEST RUC
FORECAST SOUNDINGS WERE SUGGESTING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SRH ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT...SUPPORTING A LOW PROBABILITY WATERSPOUT OR
TORNADO THREAT THESE AREAS.

..CARBIN.. 10/08/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.