[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 071923
SWODY1
SPC AC 071921

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0221 PM CDT FRI OCT 07 2005

VALID 072000Z - 081200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E
SSI 45 NNW SAV 25 NNE CAE 40 W SOP 10 WSW RDU 35 ESE HSE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW FHU 70 E PHX
30 S FLG INW 65 SSW GNT 35 WNW TCS 25 NW SVC 35 ESE DUG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW CTB 20 N MSO
25 W PUW 20 S EAT 40 W AST.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSE MOB ANB 20 E
HTS 20 SW FKL 35 NNE EFK.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH
ATLANTIC COAST STATES....

...EAST COAST...
COLD FRONT IS STALLING TO THE WEST OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...BUT SLOW ADVANCE EAST OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY/TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO
CLOSED LOW/SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF QUEBEC.  PRE-FRONTAL AIR
MASS THROUGH MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD IS VERY MOIST...BUT
TROPICAL BOUNDARY LAYER IS GENERALLY CAPPED BY WARM MID-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT ON WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC RIDGE.  WITH SOUNDINGS
MOST AREAS NEAR SATURATION AS WELL...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS LIMITED. 

BREAKS IN OVERCAST ARE ALLOWING FOR WEAK SURFACE HEATING FROM THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS...WHERE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING. WIDELY
SCATTERED ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST INTO EARLY EVENING...BEFORE
DIMINISHING AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS.

A PERSISTENT LOW/MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS STILL EVIDENT IN
OBSERVATIONAL DATA NEAR SAVANNAH GA...AND SEEMS TO PROVIDE BEST
SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. 
THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING NORTHWARD ALONG WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF 30-40 KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET...AND MAY CONTINUE TO
TRACK INTO/ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...AS MID/UPPER LOW SLOWLY LIFTS OUT OF THE EASTERN GULF
COAST REGION.  GIVEN POTENTIAL INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT OF BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE
LOWER/MID 70S...MODERATELY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND AMBIENT
VERTICAL VORTICITY SUPPORT RISK FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO OR
DAMAGING SURFACE GUSTS.

...SOUTHERN PLATEAU...
MID-LEVEL FLOW IS SUBSIDENT IN WAKE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH WHICH HAS
SHIFTED EAST OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.  AND...WITH MID/UPPER FORCING
FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE UNTIL LATE
TONIGHT...AS VIGOROUS UPSTREAM TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE PACIFIC
COAST...POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS SEEMS REMOTE. 
HOWEVER...OROGRAPHY COULD STILL PROVIDE NECESSARY FORCING IN PEAK
AFTERNOON HEATING FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS PARTS
OF THE MOGOLLON RIM AND MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.

...NORTHWEST...
CORE OF MID-LEVEL COLD POOL...ASSOCIATED WITH INITIAL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MIGRATING OFF THE PACIFIC...IS NOW LIFTING EAST NORTHEAST OF
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES.  MUCH OF EARLIER CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA HAS DIMINISHED.  WITH STRONGER MID-LEVEL COOLING
ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT DIGGING SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROGGED ACROSS
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY... PROBABILITIES FOR
ADDITIONAL STORMS ACROSS WASHINGTON ARE DECREASING.

..KERR.. 10/07/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.