[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 071554
SWODY1
SPC AC 071552

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1052 AM CDT FRI OCT 07 2005

VALID 071630Z - 081200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E
SSI 45 NNW SAV 25 NNE CAE 40 W SOP 10 WSW RDU 20 SE HSE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 SSW GBN 30 NW GBN
20 W FLG 40 NNW INW 55 WNW GUP 55 SSW GUP 15 E SAD 15 S FHU.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW CTB 20 N MSO 25
W PUW 20 S EAT 15 NW AST.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 S BVE 20 N 0A8 20
E HTS 20 SW FKL 55 NNW JHW.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS EASTERN CAROLINAS...

...SERN STATES...
MID/UPPER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NERN GULF OF MEXICO EXPECTED TO OPEN
INTO A TROUGH AND LIFT NEWD ACROSS NRN FL AND SRN GA TONIGHT.  SLY
LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW OF 30-40 KT CURRENTLY FROM ERN FL COAST NWD INTO
COASTAL CAROLINAS.  WITH TROUGH OPENING UP...FLOW EXPECTED TO
INCREASE SOME DURING PERIOD ERN CAROLINAS.

VISIBLE IMAGERY AND KJAX 88-D RADAR REF LOOP DEPICT WELL DEFINED
SURFACE CIRCULATION ALONG THE GA COAST.  THIS FEATURE CAN BE
FOLLOWED BACK TO LAST EVENING TO NEAR VRB WHICH PROVIDES A MOVEMENT
OF 180/15.  WITH THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NERN
GULF...EXPECTED THIS SURFACE FEATURE TO PERSIST AND POSSIBLY BECOME
A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT TRACKS INLAND ACROSS ERN SC THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO ERN NC TONIGHT.

A VERY TROPICAL AIR MASS IS IN PLACE E OF APPALACHIANS NWD TO VA
WITH NEAR SATURATION AND PWS WELL IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES.  ALTHOUGH
SURFACE HEATING WILL BE LIMITED GIVEN THE DEEP MOISTURE AND CLOUD
COVER...THE COMBINATION OF MID 70 DEWPOINTS...LOW LCL'S AND 30 KT OF
 SFC-1KM SHEAR...WILL PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS.

THE ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR WITH AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
CIRCULATION GA COAST SUPPORTS A GREATER RISK OF TORNADOES THAN
EARLIER FORECASTED AS IT TRACKS THRU ERN SC THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
ERN NC TONIGHT.

..HALES/TAYLOR.. 10/07/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.