[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 070443
SWODY1
SPC AC 070439

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1139 PM CDT THU OCT 06 2005

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 S BVE 20 N 0A8 20
E HTS 10 E BFD 30 NW PBG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 SSW GBN 30 NW GBN
20 W FLG 40 NNW INW 35 N GUP 20 ESE 4SL 40 SSE ABQ 25 S TCS 40 SSW
DMN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 N FCA 65 SE FCA 45
NNE 27U 50 S S80 30 SE ALW 45 ESE EPH 50 NW 63S.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A NEW TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE WEST THIS PERIOD WHILE MODEST
HEIGHT RISES SPREAD EAST FROM THE PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING OVER SRN
QUEBEC...WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR BRINGING A SURFACE COLD FRONT ESEWD
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
TRAILING SEGMENT OF THIS POLAR FRONT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
INVOLVED WITH MOIST SUBTROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING NNEWD
FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC. STRONG AND PERSISTENT INFLUX
OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ON THE NRN AND ERN FLANK OF THE SLOW MOVING
SUBTROPICAL LOW WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE ERN
SEABOARD THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

...ERN CAROLINAS...
ANOTHER WET DAY LIKELY ACROSS THESE AREAS AS UPPER LOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST MOVES SLOWLY NNEWD AND MAINTAINS BROAD AREA OF LARGE SCALE
ASCENT WITHIN A VERY MOIST AIR MASS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. A BAND OF
STRONGER SSELY LOW LEVEL FLOW OF 30-50KT AT 850MB IS FORECAST TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AHEAD OF THE LARGE SCALE LOW MOVING
ACROSS GA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR
POCKETS OF DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION COINCIDENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
OF LOCALLY STRONGER LOW LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR...A COUPLE OF TSTMS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER RAIN SHIELD COULD PRODUCE AN ISOLATED
WATERSPOUT/TORNADO...OR DAMAGING WIND GUST. POTENTIAL FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS RESTRICTED BY WIDESPREAD MOIST
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WHICH SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY IN
MOST AREAS.

..CARBIN/BANACOS.. 10/07/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.