[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 070025
SWODY1
SPC AC 070024

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0724 PM CDT THU OCT 06 2005

VALID 070100Z - 071200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SW TUS 35 S PHX 55
SW INW 25 WSW GUP 25 NW SAF 25 NW CVS 35 SSW CVS ROW 20 NNW ALM 30
SSE TCS 30 WSW DMN 65 E DUG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SW PFN 40 SE BWG
20 NW LUK 40 NNE CLE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MSS 25 SSW JHW 30 WSW
HLG 15 NNW EKN 10 S HGR ILG 45 SSE ACY.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SOUTHEAST...
BROAD REGION OF SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW
OVER THE NERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO ACT ON DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN. INSTABILITY
CONTINUES TO BE LIMITED BY EXTENSIVE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION BUT
STRONG MOISTURE FLUX AND MODEST DYNAMIC FORCING SHOULD MAINTAIN THE
CHANCE FOR SCATTERED STORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT FROM NRN FL TO THE
CAROLINAS. SEVERE POTENTIAL OVER THE REGION IS LIMITED BY LACK OF
STRONGER INSTABILITY AND MESOSCALE FOCUSING MECHANISMS. HOWEVER...
LATEST SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE WAS INDICATING A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN LOW LEVEL FLOW AND SHEAR ACROSS NRN FL AND PARTS OF ERN GA AND SC
LATER TONIGHT AS SELY LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. AN ISOLATED
WATERSPOUT OR TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THIS ENVIRONMENT.

...SOUTHWEST...
GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOCUSED ALONG WRN EXTENSION OF POLAR
FRONT NEAR THE AZ/NM BORDER...COMBINED WITH WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH AND DIURNAL HEATING...HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO ISOLATED TSTM
DEVELOPMENT OVER WCNTRL NM AND SERN AZ DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. 
GIVEN WEAK SHEAR...THE PASSING OF THE WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH...AND
WANING DIURNAL FORCING...ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH FURTHER OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

..CARBIN.. 10/07/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.