[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 061240
SWODY1
SPC AC 061239

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0739 AM CDT THU OCT 06 2005

VALID 061300Z - 071200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SW TUS 25 ENE PHX
65 WNW GUP 25 N CEZ 20 WSW GUC 40 ESE GUC 45 NW TAD 45 WSW CAO 20
SSE TCC 35 NW LBB 55 SSW CDS 40 ESE SPS 30 W PRX 40 E DAL 20 NNE ACT
35 W TPL 50 NNW SAT 40 NE COT 15 NE CRP 55 E CRP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E MSS 10 SW LBE 20
N EKN 15 W SHD 30 N RIC 35 ENE SBY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 SW HUM 25 NE MCB
40 E TUP 25 NNE BWG 30 SSW JXN 35 NNW APN.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SOUTHEAST...
BANDS OF MOIST CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH DISSIPATING T.D. TAMMY
CONTINUE TO ROTATE NNEWD ACROSS SERN GA AND PORTIONS OF SC THIS
MORNING.  IN ADDITION LARGER UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
NERN GULF/CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION TODAY.  CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WIDESPREAD WITH THESE TWO FEATURES THROUGH THE DAY WITHIN
A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT.  OVERALL INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MARGINAL...AND SHOULD KEEP SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL RATHER LOW.
 HOWEVER...VWPS EARLY THIS MORNING FROM CHS AND CAE INDICATE LOW
LEVEL SHEAR REMAINS QUITE STRONG WITH 30-40 KT ELY WINDS AROUND 1
KM.  COMBINED WITH LOW LCL/S...RESULTANT BRIEF TORNADO OR WIND
DAMAGE THREAT REMAINS NON-ZERO AND WILL NEED TO MAINTAIN LOW SEVERE
PROBABILITIES TODAY AS POCKETS OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY DEVELOP.

...AZ/WRN NM...
SURFACE FRONT WILL LIKELY REMAIN STALLED NEAR THE NM-AZ BORDER
TODAY. THOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS SPARSE ALONG AND JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THIS REGION...COMBINATION OF FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE AND OROGRAPHIC FORCING SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS AIR MASS BECOMES MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE.  ACTIVITY MAY BE AIDED BY WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON
WV IMAGERY APPROACHING THE REGION.  WEAK SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
SHOULD LIMIT ANY SEVERE THREAT...THOUGH BRIEF/MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL/WIND MAY ACCOMPANY STRONGER STORMS INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

..EVANS/BANACOS.. 10/06/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.