[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 060521
SWODY1
SPC AC 060519

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1219 AM CDT THU OCT 06 2005

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SW TUS 25 ENE PHX
65 WNW GUP 25 N CEZ 20 WSW GUC 40 ESE GUC 45 NW TAD 45 WSW CAO 20
SSE TCC 35 NW LBB 55 SSW CDS 40 ESE SPS 30 W PRX 40 E DAL 20 NNE ACT
35 W TPL 50 NNW SAT 40 NE COT 15 NE CRP 55 E CRP ...CONT... 80 SW
HUM 25 NE MCB 40 E TUP 25 NNE BWG 30 SSW JXN 35 ESE ANJ ...CONT...
25 E MSS 10 SW LBE 20 N EKN 15 W SHD 30 N RIC 35 ENE SBY.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG DEEP LAYER CYCLONE ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY EARLY TODAY
WILL OPEN UP AND LIFT INTO SERN CANADA THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. THE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MID LATITUDE DISTURBANCE WILL EXTEND
FROM MI TO NM EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THE NRN SEGMENT OF THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TO A POSITION FROM NY TO THE OH VALLEY BY
EARLY FRIDAY. THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
SLOWER TO MOVE EAST AND MAY BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER INFLUX OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE OH VALLEY TO THE TN VALLEY LATE IN THE PERIOD.
STRONG SURGE OF COOLER AIR ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...COUPLED WITH
APPROACH OF A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM THE FOUR CORNERS...SHOULD 
SUSTAIN LIFT ALONG THE TRAILING/WRN SEGMENT OF THE FRONTAL
ZONE...FROM THE AZ/NM BORDER...ACROSS THE UPPER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY...TO PARTS OF SCNTRL TX.

UNUSUAL FLOW REGIME EXISTS ACROSS THE NRN GULF AND SOUTHEAST AS T.D.
TAMMY CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO ROTATE INLAND AROUND A LARGER SCALE
LOW LOCATED OVER THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO. BROAD BAND OF 30-40KT SELY
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT TROPICAL MOISTURE INLAND
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC REGIONS. BOTH OROGRAPHIC AND
FRONTAL FORCING ACTING ON THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY RAIN FROM THE APPALACHIANS TO THE MID
ATLANTIC BY EARLY FRIDAY. FARTHER SOUTH...LARGER SCALE LOW SHOULD
MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM NERN GULF COAST TO PARTS
OF THE DEEP SOUTH.

...SOUTHEAST...
IT WILL REMAIN DIFFICULT TO DEFINE THE AREA OF GREATER SEVERE
POTENTIAL ACROSS THIS REGION DUE TO WIDESPREAD INFLUX OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH T.D. TAMMY AND LARGER SCALE ONSHORE FLOW.
GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND STRONG LOW LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...ANY BREAKS IN CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION WOULD CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY. AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST...WATERSPOUT...OR BRIEF
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO
INSTABILITY AND FORCING SUGGEST ONLY LOW SEVERE PROBABILITY VALUES
ARE WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

...SOUTHWEST...
GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOCUSED ALONG FRONTAL SURGE INTO THIS
REGION WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODEST INSTABILITY.
OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED BY WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA AND PROMOTE TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN MARGINALLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL AND/OR HIGH WINDS.
OVERALL...ANTICIPATED COVERAGE DOES NOT APPEAR TO SUGGEST THE
ISSUANCE OF A SLGT RISK WITH THIS OUTLOOK.

..CARBIN/BANACOS.. 10/06/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.