[SWODY1] SWODY1

Severe Weather Outlook Day 1 SWODY1 at goshenarc.org
Wed Oct 5 00:59:30 UTC 2005


ACUS01 KWNS 050056
SWODY1
SPC AC 050055

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0755 PM CDT TUE OCT 04 2005

VALID 050100Z - 051200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW
FNB 20 WNW CNK 30 N HLC 30 S BBW 25 SSW YKN 25 W RWF 25 SE STC 25
WNW IMT 25 NE GRB 35 ENE MCW 30 NNW FNB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW DUG 40 NNE FHU
25 NNW PHX 25 ENE PRC 20 NE INW 35 ESE DRO 50 S VEL 20 NNE VEL 45 S
LAR 30 NE 81V DIK 45 SE MOT 35 ESE RRT ...CONT... 80 E OSC 25 ENE
MKG LNR 30 NNE LWD 35 NNE CNU 45 ENE CSM 20 N PVW 50 W MRF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW DRT 50 SSE BWD
CLL 40 WNW HUM 35 SE GPT 25 NW SAV 10 ESE OAJ 25 SSW ECG 40 ENE ECG.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN NEB NEWD ACROSS NWRN IA/SRN
MN INTO NRN WI...

...ERN NEB NEWD INTO SRN MN/NRN WI...
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ATTM FROM ERN NEB NEWD INTO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ATTM...AND SHOULD INCREASE
AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES AND LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES.  MOST OF THE
CONVECTION IS ELEVATED N OF SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE WHERE
INSTABILITY REMAINS LIMITED.  HOWEVER...STORMS FROM ERN NEB INTO
SWRN MN ARE SURFACE-BASED -- OR VERY NEARLY SO -- ALONG SURFACE
FRONT...WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY IS INDICATED.

EVENING OAX /OMAHA NEB/ RAOB AND AREA VWPS/PROFILERS REVEAL
FAVORABLY STRONG/VEERING WIND PROFILES...SUPPORTIVE OF
ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS.  SEVERAL REPORTS OF HAIL AND SEVERE WIND
GUSTS HAVE OCCURRED ALONG THIS CORRIDOR...AND EXPECT MAIN SEVERE
THREAT OVERNIGHT TO CONTINUE ACROSS THIS REGION AS LOW DEVELOPS NEWD
ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE AND REACHES SRN MN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

..GOSS.. 10/05/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.








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