[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 021948
SWODY1
SPC AC 021947

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0247 PM CDT SUN OCT 02 2005

VALID 022000Z - 031200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 ENE APN 40 ENE FNT
25 SSW JXN 20 S FWA 40 SE BMG 10 ESE BWG 10 WSW CSV 50 NW AND 10 S
CAE 50 ESE CHS ...CONT... 50 SSE LRD 30 SW HDO 40 ENE AUS 45 WNW LFK
25 WNW SHV 40 N TXK 10 SE HRO 45 NW TBN 35 ESE OMA 35 ENE ATY 25 WNW
INL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 S GBN 55 ESE GBN
40 WNW SAD 75 ESE SOW 45 WSW ABQ 15 NW TCC 15 W AMA PVW INK 45 NNE
MRF 75 W MRF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW CTB 30 NNW HLN
25 NE 27U 30 WNW TWF 30 W EKO 40 SSW SVE 65 WNW UKI.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...UPPER MIDWEST/WRN GREAT LAKES...

AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRANSLATING NEWD THROUGH PARTS OF ERN MN AND ERN IA WITH DOWNSTREAM
REGION OF IMPLIED ASCENT OVERSPREADING WI AND NRN/CNTRL IL.  TSTMS
HAVE BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN AND CNTRL IL INTO FAR SRN WI AND NWRN
IND.  IT APPEARS THAT THIS ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING ON ERN EDGE OF
REMNANT MCS CLOUD CANOPY WHERE ZONE OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER WAVE IS ACTING ON MOIST AND MODERATELY
UNSTABLE /MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG/ AIR MASS.

INSPECTION OF REGIONAL VWPS AND PROFILERS SHOW INFLUENCE OF PASSING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH WINDS ABOVE 1-2 KM BACKING THEN VEERING WITH
HEIGHT.  THIS IS RESULTING IN AN OVERALL DISORGANIZATION TO THE
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILE...WHICH SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT INDIVIDUAL STORM
INTENSITY AND LONGEVITY.  EXPECT STORMS TO GRADUALLY MOVE/DEVELOP
NEWD FROM NRN/CNTRL IL AND NWRN IND INTO PORTIONS OF SRN WI AND
PERHAPS SWRN LOWER MI. A FEW OF THE MORE INTENSE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/HIGH WINDS PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF
RADIATIONAL COOLING LATER TONIGHT.

...MN/NRN WI...

18Z NAM REMAINS CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING TSTMS ALONG COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT FROM NRN WI INTO SWRN MN.  HERE...STRENGTHENING LLJ WILL
ENHANCE CONVERGENCE/ASCENT INVOF FRONTAL ZONE...LEADING TO THE
INITIATION OF DEEP CONVECTION AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME HAIL/LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS.

..MEAD.. 10/02/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.