[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 021611
SWODY1
SPC AC 021610

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1110 AM CDT SUN OCT 02 2005

VALID 021630Z - 031200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 ENE APN 40 ENE FNT
20 SSW JXN 35 NW MIE 45 S BMG 10 ESE BWG 10 WSW CSV 50 NW AND 10 S
CAE 50 ESE CHS ...CONT... 50 SSE LRD 30 SW HDO 40 ENE AUS 30 SW TYR
25 WNW SHV 50 SE PGO 20 NW HRO 35 SE SZL 35 ESE OMA 35 ENE ATY 25
WNW INL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW CTB 30 NNW HLN
25 NE 27U 30 WNW TWF 30 W EKO 40 SSW SVE 65 WNW UKI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 S GBN 55 ESE GBN
40 WNW SAD 75 ESE SOW 45 WSW ABQ 50 W TCC 30 SE TCC 45 ESE CVS INK
45 NNE MRF 75 W MRF.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE CONUS WITH A RIDGE OVER THE
ERN STATES AND A DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NWRN STATES.  WITHIN
THIS FLOW REGIME...ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MT/ALBERTA THIS MORNING
WILL EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER CENTRAL ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN.  IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS MID LEVEL LOW...A SURFACE CYCLONE INVOF N
CENTRAL ND WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NNEWD ACROSS MANITOBA WHILE A
TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS.  IN ADVANCE OF
THIS SYSTEM...A SMALLER SCALE MID LEVEL WAVE WILL EJECT NEWD OVER
THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND CONTINUE TO LOSE AMPLITUDE WHILE BECOMING
ABSORBED INTO THE BELT OF SWLY FLOW BETWEEN THE ERN RIDGE AND NWRN
TROUGH.

...UPPER MS VALLEY TODAY...
LOW-LEVEL WAA/ASCENT OVER A WEAK COLD POOL MAY SUSTAIN THE MCS OVER
NRN MO/SRN IA INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...THOUGH GRADUAL WEAKENING OF
THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED BY LATER TODAY.  ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE EJECTING MID
LEVEL WAVE OVER WI/IL AS THE LOW LEVELS DESTABILIZE.  THE
COMBINATION OF POTENTIALLY MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 35-45 KT L0W-MID
LEVEL FLOW MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING GUSTS WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

...MN AREA TONIGHT...
12Z SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE WARM SECTOR WILL REMAIN CAPPED TODAY
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS BASED ON 850 MB TEMPERATURES AS WARM AS 25 C
AND ESTIMATED CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES OF 95-103 F.  LATER TONIGHT
ACROSS MN...THE COLD FRONT WILL ENCOUNTER MODERATE INSTABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPER/RICHER MOIST LAYER IN THE LOW LEVELS...AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME POSSIBLE.  ASSUMING
STORMS FORM LATER TONIGHT...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING
GUSTS COULD OCCUR.

..THOMPSON/JEWELL.. 10/02/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.