[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 021225
SWODY1
SPC AC 021224

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0724 AM CDT SUN OCT 02 2005

VALID 021300Z - 031200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW BRO 40 ESE COT
40 S AUS 10 WSW CLL POE MCB LUL 50 N AYS 45 N SAV OAJ 55 E ECG
...CONT... 110 S GBN FMN RTN 10 SSW CAO 10 ESE CNM 65 W MRF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NW CTB 25 SE MSO
60 NE SUN 60 NNE ENV 30 ESE BAM 75 SW EKA.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 E ANJ MBS 10 N TOL
CMH 30 NNW HTS JKL HSV TUP 25 SSE FYV 30 N TOP 30 NNE OMA 30 NNE OTG
30 W BRD 35 NE INL.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
VIGOROUS MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW ACROSS THE NW STATES WILL
CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND NRN ROCKIES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL LIKEWISE
CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND SWD INTO THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS TODAY.  AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WEAKENING UPPER LOW WHICH
HAS BEEN SUSTAINING STRONG/OCCASIONALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT OVER FAR NERN KS/NWRN MO...WILL CONTINUE LIFTING NEWD INTO
THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY.

...NRN MO/IA INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES...
CLUSTER OF INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES NEAR THE KS/NWRN MO
BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING.  THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING SUSTAINED BY AN
UPPER LOW WHICH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NEWD INTO WI AS AN OPEN WAVE
THIS AFTERNOON.  THOUGH LOW LEVELS REMAIN RELATIVELY
COOL/STABLE...FEED OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST MUCAPE
SHOULD SUSTAIN A FEW STRONGER CELLS ALONG WRN PERIPHERY OF THE MCS
THIS MORNING.  THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED...THOUGH
OCCASIONAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES OBSERVED THIS MORNING WITHIN MODEST
DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY
STRONGER CELLS.  OTHER STORMS MAY INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AS
HEATING AND MARGINAL TO MODERATE SBCAPE DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
OVER PARTS OF THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY. A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WINDS INTO THE EARLY EVENING
GIVEN EXPECTED 1000-2000 J/KG SBCAPE AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 30
KT.

...ERN DAKOTAS INTO WRN/NRN MN...
SEVERAL NEGATIVES FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION WILL OVERSPREAD THIS
REGION AHEAD OF APPROACHING SURFACE COLD FRONT TODAY.  FOREMOST OF
WHICH WILL BE STRONG CAPPING AND LIMITED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. 
IN ADDITION...AREA WILL REMAIN IN WEAK SUBSIDENT REGION FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY IN WAKE OF EJECTING MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
TOWARDS THE WRN GREAT LAKES.  GIVEN STRENGTH OF CAP EVIDENT ON 12Z
SOUNDINGS...FEEL THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS TOO MARGINAL TO MAINTAIN
CURRENT FORECAST OF LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES.

..EVANS/TAYLOR.. 10/02/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.