[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 020526
SWODY1
SPC AC 020525

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 AM CDT SUN OCT 02 2005

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 110 S GBN FMN RTN 10
SSW CAO 10 ESE CNM 65 W MRF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW BRO 40 ESE COT
40 S AUS 10 WSW CLL POE MCB LUL 50 N AYS 45 N SAV OAJ 55 E ECG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 E ANJ MBS 10 NW
TOL CMH 30 NNW HTS JKL HSV TUP FSM FNB OLU HON FAR 20 NNW RRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 100 NE 63S 10 NNE 3TH
MSO 10 SSE LWT 55 ENE BIL 55 WSW GCC 10 E RKS DPG ELY U31 25 NNE LOL
60 SSE 4LW MHS 75 SW EKA.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED GENERALLY BY HEIGHTS RISING 
OVER NERN CONUS AND FALLING ACROSS NRN PLAINS AND GREAT BASIN. SWLY
MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW...WITH SEVERAL MINOR/EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES --
WILL EXTEND FROM CENTRAL/NRN CA TO DAKOTAS.  MEANWHILE...UPPER LOW
NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER MKC/STJ AREA WILL
DEAMPLIFY AND MOVE NEWD AS AN OPEN WAVE TROUGH...ACROSS UPPER MS
VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES REGIONS.

AT SFC...CYCLONE NOW OVER ERN MT/ND BORDER REGION WILL LIFT NEWD
ACROSS ERN MB EARLY IN PERIOD...ALLOWING TRAILING COLD FRONT TO
SWEEP SEWD ACROSS DAKOTAS AND WY.  FRONT SHOULD REACH NWRN MN AND
NWRN NEB BY 3/00Z...THEN WRN LS...NWRN IA...SERN NEB AND NERN CO BY
END OF PERIOD. LITTLE OR NO SFC REFLECTION IS EXPECTED FOR
WEAKENING/EJECTING MIDLEVEL WAVE OVER UPPER MS VALLEY...THOUGH
MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES RELATED TO PRECIP OUTFLOW AND DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING MAY BE PRESENT DURING AFTERNOON HOURS.

...UPPER MIDWEST...
CONDITIONAL SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO EXIST ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC
COLD FRONT -- FROM MIDAFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING -- PRIMARILY
OVER MN.  ETA/ETA-KF/SPECTRAL PROGS REASONABLY SHOW LITTLE OR NO
CONVECTIVE INITIATION...THOUGH ETA APPEARS TOO COOL WITH AFTERNOON
SFC TEMPS AHEAD OF FRONT.  STRONG CAPPING MAY PRECLUDE DEVELOPMENT
ALTOGETHER AS PROGGED...BUT FCST LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST
POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURE IN ANY SUSTAINED CONVECTION THAT
CAN FORM.

LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DEPARTING/EJECTING SRN STREAM TROUGH
WILL WEAKEN BOTH WITH TIME AND WITH WWD EXTENT DURING AFTERNOON.
BY 02/21Z-03/00Z TIME FRAME...AREA OF SEVERE PROBABILITIES WILL BE
FAR ENOUGH FROM SHORTWAVE RIDGING THAT LARGE SCALE VERTICAL MOTION
FIELDS SHOULD BE ESSENTIALLY NEUTRAL.  THEREFORE...PEAK HEATING AND
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL RESULT IN WEAKEST CINH...PERHAPS ALLOWING A
FEW TSTMS TO DEVELOP IN ENVIRONMENT OF ENLARGED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS
AND MARGINAL DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. SLIGHT ELY COMPONENT OF SFC FLOW
OVER REGION -- BENEATH 30-35 KT 850 MB WINDS -- YIELD 0-1 KM AND 0-3
KM SRH VALUES ROUGHLY 250 AND 350 J/KG RESPECTIVELY ACROSS CENTRAL
MN AHEAD OF FRONT.  SFC DEW POINTS SHOULD RISE INTO MID-UPPER 60S F
THROUGH BOTH MOIST ADVECTION AND EVAPOTRANSPIRATIVE
EFFECTS...CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE 2000-2500 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON. 
STRENGTH OF CINH SHOULD PREVENT SFC-BASED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FROM
LASTING MORE THAN A FEW HOURS INTO EVENING.

..EDWARDS/TAYLOR.. 10/02/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.