[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 020058
SWODY1
SPC AC 020057

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0757 PM CDT SAT OCT 01 2005

VALID 020100Z - 021200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 NW FCA 3TH LWS RDM
EUG 25 WSW CEC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MFE ALI CLL SHV TXK
PGO MLC 40 S OKC CSM P28 CNK SPW MCW DBQ MLI BRL COU TBN 50 NNW POF
SLO 45 ENE EVV BWG TCL SEM MGM 45 NE ABY 40 NNW SAV 25 S FLO 35 ESE
ILM.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
IN MID/UPPER LEVELS...HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS
PACIFIC NW...E OF BROAD NERN PACIFIC TROUGH.  AS THIS
OCCURS...SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY
AND PROFILER DATA OVER NERN KS -- IS FCST TO CONTINUE LIFTING NEWD
ACROSS NWRN MO/WRN IA AREA WHILE SLOWLY DEAMPLIFYING.  LOW LEVEL WAA
PATTERN COVERS MUCH OF CENTRAL CONUS...SOMEWHAT IN RESPONSE TO KS/MO
TROUGH BUT MORE BROADLY ASSOCIATED WITH LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS OVER
NRN HIGH PLAINS.

SYNOPTIC SFC PATTERN REMAINS DOMINATED BY NRN PLAINS PRESSURE FALLS
AND BY STRONG RIDGE FROM BERMUDA AREA WWD ACROSS NC THEN WSWWD TO
ARKLATEX REGION.  SEVERAL DIFFUSE MESOSCALE  BOUNDARIES --
ASSOCIATED WITH PRIOR CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS...ARE EVIDENT OVER ERN OK
AND SERN KS.

...OK TO IA...
WW 828 HAS BEEN CANCELED.  WHILE CONDITIONAL/MARGINAL SEVERE
PROBABILITIES REMAIN FOR WIND AND HAIL...PRIND OVERALL THREAT HAS
DIMINISHED SUCH THAT CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK CAN BE DOWNGRADED FOR
REMAINDER OF PERIOD.

POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SFC-BASED CONVECTION WILL DECREASE THROUGH
REMAINDER EVENING AS DIABATIC COOLING DECOUPLES BOUNDARY LAYER.
ASSOCIATED LLJ INTENSIFICATION...HOWEVER...WILL CHANNEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND WAA TOWARD WRN MO...NERN KS...SERN NEB AND WRN IA
OVERNIGHT.  THIS SHOULD STEEPEN LAPSE RATES SOMEWHAT ABOVE BOUNDARY
LAYER...RAISE PARCELS TO LFC...AND RESULT IN INCREASING TSTM
COVERAGE.  MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE ELEVATED
MUCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG INVOF KS/MO BORDER...DECREASING WITH NWD
EXTENT ACROSS WRN IA.  WITH MIDLEVEL TROUGH BECOMING SLIGHTLY
NEGATIVELY TILTED...MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX TO ITS SE WILL ASSUME
STRONGLY MERIDIONAL COMPONENT RENDERING NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND
PROFILES WITHIN EFFECTIVE SHEAR LAYER. FARTHER SW...GREATEST
BUOYANCY WILL REMAIN OVER OK AS INDICATED BY 00Z OUN RAOB...WHICH
APPEARS UNCAPPED.  HOWEVER CONVECTION HAS BEEN LACKING BECAUSE OF
WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER AND DEEP-LAYER FORCING...A TREND THAT SHOULD
CONTINUE.  ANY TSTMS WHICH CAN FORM STILL MAY PRODUCE HAIL AND WIND
NEAR SEVERE LEVELS.

..EDWARDS.. 10/02/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.