[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 011938
SWODY1
SPC AC 011937

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0237 PM CDT SAT OCT 01 2005

VALID 012000Z - 021200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW
FLV 30 ESE OJC 45 NW SGF 25 WSW UMN 30 E MKO 15 E DUA 30 WSW DUA 20
ENE SPS 25 NNW FSI 45 WNW OKC 10 WNW END 45 SSW ICT 25 NNE ICT 15 SE
MHK 10 SSW FLV.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NW FCA 25 NNW 3TH
10 W PUW 30 N ALW 40 SSE EPH 45 SSE 4OM 45 NNE 4OM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW MFE 10 S ALI
35 SE SAT 35 E AUS 60 WNW LFK 20 NNE GGG 45 WSW TXK 20 SSW PRX 10
ENE DAL 10 E MWL 55 NE ABI 45 SSW LTS 10 W CSM 25 WNW P28 30 ESE RSL
35 N CNK 25 SW OMA 10 ESE FOD 30 N CID 35 WNW SPI 30 ENE MVN 25 N
HOP 45 SE BNA 20 NE ANB 30 SSW AUO 45 S CSG 55 SSE MCN 40 WNW SAV 35
SSW FLO 35 SE FAY 60 E ECG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 WNW 4OM 50 NW EAT
20 N DLS 50 W RDM 35 SE OTH 55 WNW 4BK.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER
PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND ERN OK...ERN KS AND WRN MO...

...SYNOPSIS...
AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED
OVER S-CNTRL KS WITH IMPLIED DOWNSTREAM REGION OF FORCING FOR ASCENT
ACROSS ERN KS...TRAILING SWD INTO ERN OK.  FARTHER TO THE
SW...CONSIDERABLE MID-LEVEL DRYING/SUBSIDENCE IS BEING OBSERVED OVER
N TX/SWRN OK.  IN THE LOW-LEVELS...LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATED A
WEAK SURFACE LOW NEARLY COINCIDENT WITH UPPER CIRCULATION OVER
N-CNTRL OK WITH TRAILING TROUGH/CONVERGENCE ZONE EXTENDING SWD TO W
OF OKC TO NEAR SPS.  MEANWHILE...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT
COMPOSITE INTERSECTED THIS TROUGH N OF SPS WITH A GENERAL SEWD
EXTENSION ALONG RED RIVER INTO SWRN AR.

...CNTRL/ERN OK INTO ERN KS/WRN MO...

LOOSELY ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF TSTMS ARE IN PROGRESS THIS AFTERNOON
OVER SERN KS AND SERN OK /NE OF MLC/ WITHIN REGION OF FORCING E OF
UPPER SYSTEM.  THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ABOVE A
STABLE BOUNDARY-LAYER WITH INFLOW LIKELY ORIGINATING FROM
COMPARATIVELY HOT AND MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS NWRN
TX AND SWRN/S-CNTRL OK.

SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS AS TO WHETHER SURFACE-BASED STORMS
WILL BE ABLE TO INITIATE AND BECOME SUSTAINED ALONG N-S CONVERGENCE
ZONE AND/OR WARM FRONT GIVEN THAT THE STRONGEST LARGE-SCALE FORCING
FOR ASCENT IS LIFTING NE OF THESE LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARIES.  CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT SURFACE-BASED STORMS MAY DEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING INVOF WEAK SURFACE LOW AND UPPER CIRCULATION
WHERE CAP IS LOCALLY WEAKER AND FORCING IS STRONGER.  SUBSEQUENT
DEVELOPMENT MAY THEN OCCUR SWD ALONG PRESSURE TROUGH AND PERHAPS
WARM FRONT WHERE AIR MASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE /MLCAPES OF
 1000-2000 J/KG.  SHOULD THIS SCENARIO UNFOLD...THE COMBINATION OF
THIS MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 35-45 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED...SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS...CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

EXPECT ONGOING ELEVATED TSTMS TO BECOME INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD THIS
EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT FROM NERN OK NWD THROUGH ERN KS/WRN MO WITH
INTENSIFYING WAA REGIME ALONG NOSE OF DEVELOPING LLJ.  PRESENCE OF
MUCAPES APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG WILL SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO
POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
BEING LARGE HAIL.

..MEAD.. 10/01/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.