[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 011607
SWODY1
SPC AC 011605

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1105 AM CDT SAT OCT 01 2005

VALID 011630Z - 021200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW
FLV 30 ESE OJC 45 NW SGF 25 WSW UMN 30 E MKO 15 E DUA 30 WSW DUA 15
SE SPS 25 SE LTS 25 ENE CSM 30 W END 35 ESE P28 30 ENE HUT 15 SE MHK
10 SSW FLV.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NW FCA 25 NNW 3TH
10 W PUW 30 N ALW 40 SSE EPH 45 SSE 4OM 45 NNE 4OM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW MFE 10 S ALI
35 SE SAT 35 E AUS 60 WNW LFK 20 NNE GGG 45 WSW TXK 20 SSW PRX 15 E
DAL 20 SW SEP 40 NE SJT 55 WNW ABI 30 NNE CDS 45 E LBL 40 WSW RSL 35
NNW CNK 25 SW OMA 10 ESE FOD 30 N CID 35 WNW SPI 30 ENE MVN 25 N HOP
45 SE BNA 20 NE ANB 30 SSW AUO 45 S CSG 55 SSE MCN 40 WNW SAV 35 SSW
FLO 35 SE FAY 60 E ECG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 WNW 4OM 50 NW EAT
20 N DLS 50 W RDM 35 SE OTH 55 WNW 4BK.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT FOR
CENTRAL/ERN OK...SE KS...AND WRN MO....

...OK/KS/MO AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...
THE COMPACT MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER CENTRAL OK/KS THIS MORNING WILL
LIFT NEWD TOWARD MO/IA AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN BY TONIGHT...IN RESPONSE
TO AMPLIFICATION OF BOTH THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH OVER THE NWRN
STATES AND THE RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST.  

THE LOOSE COMMA CONFIGURATION OF STORMS FROM EXTREME N TX INTO ERN
OK IS BEING FED BY MUCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG /FOR PARCELS NEAR 850
MB/ AND A 40-50 KT SSWLY LLJ.  THIS CONVECTION WILL POSE A MARGINAL
HAIL THREAT THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY...AFTER WHICH TIME THE LLJ AND THE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN. GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF PRONOUNCED
SURFACE BOUNDARIES IN THE WARM SECTOR AND THE HEIGHT RISES/WEAK
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER CENTRAL OK BY
LATE AFTERNOON...SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SEEMS QUITE
UNCERTAIN WITHIN THE INSTABILITY AXIS. 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS FROM
OUN/FWD...ALONG WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM/RUC...SUGGEST
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO REACH THE MID-UPPER 80S WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS OF 68-70 F TO MINIMIZE CIN.  AFTERNOON
MLCAPE VALUES AOA 2000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 40
KT WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS IF CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP ALONG REMAINING
SUBTLE BOUNDARIES ACROSS CENTRAL OK LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE PROBABLE THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT FROM N/NE OK INTO SE KS WHERE A STRENGTHENING LLJ
FOCUSES WAA ALONG AND N OF A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT.  THIS CONVECTION
SHOULD THEN PERSIST OVERNIGHT WHILE SPREADING NEWD INTO WRN MO. 
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH THESE
STORMS.

..THOMPSON/JEWELL.. 10/01/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.