[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 011232
SWODY1
SPC AC 011230

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0730 AM CDT SAT OCT 01 2005

VALID 011300Z - 021200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MKC
SZL 45 SSE SZL SGF FYV 45 NNE PRX 40 SSW DUA 45 SSW SPS 45 W SPS LTS
35 E GAG P28 35 NW HUT 20 NNE MHK MKC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW FCA 65 E BKE
30 WSW BNO 50 NW 4BK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S BRO 10 SW ALI 50
N SAT 30 W BWD 70 NNW ABI 40 SW GAG 35 NNE GCK EAR 20 S YKN MCW DBQ
30 WNW SLO 35 S CGI 55 WSW BNA CHA 30 S ATL 60 SW AGS FAY 55 ESE
ECG.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVERS PARTS OF CENTRAL/ERN
KS..WRN MO..OK..AND NRN TX...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE SCALE AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST TO OCCUR
DURING THE PERIOD AS BROAD TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE NWRN STATES AND
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ERN STATES.  CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER NWRN OK IS
FORECAST TO LIFT NEWD INTO KS TODAY BEFORE OPENING INTO A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AND WEAKENING OVER IA TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES...INTERMOUNTAIN REGION
AND NRN CA.  OVER THE PLAINS STATES...SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
PERSIST IN THE WAKE OF THE OK/KS UPPER LOW AS LEE TROUGH IS
MAINTAINED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.

...KS/WRN MO/OK AREA...
MCS ASSOCIATED WITH PLAINS UPPER LOW IS LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS NEWD INTO KS.  EXTENSIVE AREA OF
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION SPREADING FROM NRN/ERN OK ACROSS
CENTRAL/ERN KS AND WRN MO WILL LIMIT DIURNAL HEATING AND SUBSEQUENT
DESTABILIZATION IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER LOW.  NONETHELESS...COOLING
500 MB TEMPERATURES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DEVELOPMENT OF UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPING NEWD INTO PARTS OF KS AND WRN MO THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL ALSO INCREASE AS
STRONGER BAND OF MID LEVEL WINDS LIFTS NEWD INTO ERN KS/WRN MO THIS
AFTERNOON.  THUS...THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR MCS TO INTENSIFY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A FEW CELLS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.

AS MCS LIFTS NEWD TODAY...CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH FROM PARTS OF NRN TX
NWD ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL OK INTO SRN KS. THIS WILL ALLOW STRONG
HEATING TO OCCUR WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ENVIRONMENT BECOMING
MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE OF 1500-2500 J/KG.  HOWEVER...WEAK
SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION IMMEDIATELY IN THE
WAKE OF THE MCS WITH SUBSEQUENT UNCERTAINTY ABOUT REDEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  EXAMINATION OF FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM ETA..ETAKF..AND EXPERIMENTAL HIGH RESOLUTION WRF-NMM 
MODELS INDICATE CAP WILL WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS SUGGESTS
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IF ANY
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM MORNING CONVECTION CAN PERSIST INTO THE
AFTERNOON.  ALTHOUGH WESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS WILL WEAKEN ACROSS OK
AND NRN TX AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NEWD...STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
WITH HEIGHT WILL RESULT IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-35 KT IN THE
LOWEST 6 KM WHICH WILL ENHANCE STORM INTENSITY AND ORGANIZATION FOR
ANY SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS THAT CAN DEVELOP.  ETA/ETAKF/SREF GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATING REDEVELOPMENT
OF A FEW STORMS IN THE WAKE OF CURRENT ACTIVITY.  WE WILL MAINTAIN A
CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT  BEHIND THE MCS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREATS.

..WEISS/TAYLOR.. 10/01/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.