[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 291257
SWODY1
SPC AC 291256

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0656 AM CST TUE NOV 29 2005

VALID 291300Z - 301200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE
SSI 30 NNW AYS 20 NE AND 40 S PSK 15 WNW HGR 40 SE CXY 10 SW NHK 45
SE ECG 25 NE HSE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW ART 25 SSE SYR
20 ESE POU 15 SSW GON 50 SSW BID ...CONT... 40 SSE AAF 20 SW MGR 25
WSW AND 50 W BKW 35 SSE CAK 55 NNW ERI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW CLM 10 SSE OLM
20 NNW PDX EUG 25 NNE OTH 45 WSW OTH.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM DELMARVA INTO THE
CAROLINAS/SERN GA...

...CENTRAL NY/PA SWD INTO THE CAROLINAS/SERN GA...
DEEP MOIST CONVECTION HAS STRUGGLED TO MAINTAIN ITSELF OVERNIGHT
ALONG PRIMARY SURFACE CONVERGENCE AXIS/COLD FRONT NOW PUSHING EWD
ACROSS THE CREST OF THE APPALACHIANS AND THE FL BIG BEND REGION. 
THIS RAISES SOME QUESTION REGARDING OVERALL SEVERE THREAT TODAY AS
THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES EWD AND MOVES OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. SHORE
THIS AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER AIR REMAINS UNSEASONABLY
MOIST WITH MID 60+F SURFACE DEW POINTS FROM FL/SERN GA NWD INTO
CENTRAL NC...MID 50F SURFACE DEW POINTS INTO CENTRAL NY.  IN
ADDITION...SHEAR VALUES REMAIN QUITE STRONG ACROSS ALL THE AFFECTED
REGION.  THE AXIS OF MID/UPPER 60F SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD LIFT
GRADUALLY NWD AND OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE PIEDMONT
REGION/ERN NC THROUGH THE DAY.

THOUGH SURFACE HEATING WILL BE MITIGATED BY PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS
AND AREAS OF PRECIPITATION...GRADUAL SURFACE WARMING INTO THE 70S
WILL GENERATE MARGINAL TO MODERATE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY BY THE
MID TO LATE MORNING.  LESSER HEATING AND SURFACE-BASED CAPE WILL
OCCUR NORTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE.  MODIFIED 12Z SOUNDING AT CHS
INDICATES SBCAPE APPROACHING 1500 J/KG WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURE OF
75F...WITH 70F TEMPERATURE AT GSO YIELDING SIMILAR SBCAPE.  IN
ADDITION...EXTREME SHEAR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE NEARER THE
APPALACHIANS...WITH O-1 KM SRH IN EXCESS OF 300 M2/S2 AT GSO THIS
MORNING.  WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALREADY NEARING 70F FROM CENTRAL
SC INTO SWRN VA...SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY INCREASE ACROSS THIS
REGION BY MID MORNING. THREAT SHOULD THEN SPREAD EASTWARD AND
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY...WITH AT LEAST A MARGINAL
SEVERE THREAT SPREADING AS FAR NORTH AS PA AND NY WHERE SURFACE DEW
POINTS IN THE MID 50S MAY SUPPORT WEAK INSTABILITY.  SHEAR WILL
LESSEN WITH SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD EXTENT AS SURFACE CONVERGENCE
SPREADS EAST OF STRONGEST MID LEVEL WINDS.  HOWEVER...LOW AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL STILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND
SMALL LINES AS ACTIVITY INCREASES AND MOVES ACROSS SERN GA/SC LATER
THIS MORNING.  PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL MOST LIKELY BE FROM
DAMAGING WINDS...THOUGH THE THREAT OF TORNADOES CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED
ONCE HEATING ALLOWS STORMS TO ROOT NEAR THE SURFACE ESPECIALLY INTO
THE CAROLINAS/CENTRAL VA.

..EVANS/JEWELL.. 11/29/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM