[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 290529
SWODY1
SPC AC 290527

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 PM CST MON NOV 28 2005

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE
SGJ VDI 30 WSW AGS 35 ENE HKY ROA 20 NNW SHD 30 SSW MRB 35 SSE MRB
15 SW DCA RIC 30 ENE RZZ 20 NE EWN 70 SSW HSE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW ART SYR POU 15
SSW GON 50 SSW BID ...CONT... 70 SSW PFN MAI 65 NW AHN ZZV 30 NE CLE
60 NNE CLE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW CLM OLM PDX 40
E OTH 55 WNW 4BK.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF VA AND THE
CAROLINAS...

...SYNOPSIS...
DEEP OCCLUDED CYCLONE...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...
IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND BE EJECTED NEWD INTO ONTARIO...AS TROUGH
AMPLIFIES OVER CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES SWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS.
THIS WILL RESULT IN AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
SWD INTO AL/GA TO SWEEP EWD INTO THE ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES BY LATE
IN THE DAY.

...VA SWD INTO THE CAROLINAS...
MODELS INDICATE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE SRN END OF
THE ONTARIO LOW WILL SWEEP NEWD ACROSS WRN VA/NC LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD STRENGTHEN THE CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND MAINTAIN THUNDERSTORMS. THE STRONG FLOW ALOFT PARALLEL
TO THE FRONT IS LIKELY TO MAINTAIN A CONVECTIVE LINE. DESPITE
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...CLOUDY SKIES AND MOIST ADIABATIC
LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE AROUND
500 J/KG. HOWEVER...WIND FIELDS WILL BE STRONG AND MAY SUPPORT
EMBEDDED BOWS WITHIN THE LINE WITH AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT.
ALSO...THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND STRONG VEERING IN THE LOWEST KM
MAY SUPPORT A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. GIVEN THAT THE MAIN FORCING WILL
BE WEST AND NORTH OF THE FRONT AND THE WEAK INSTABILITY/LAPSE
RATES...IT APPEARS ANY SEVERE THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD BE LESS INTENSE
AND MORE ISOLATED THAN ON MONDAY.

..IMY.. 11/29/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM