[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 271300
SWODY1
SPC AC 271258

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0658 AM CST SUN NOV 27 2005

VALID 271300Z - 281200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E
ELD 25 ESE TXK 30 ENE DEQ 20 NE FSM 15 SSW JLN 15 SE EMP 20 WNW TOP
10 WNW FLV 40 WNW COU 20 NNE VIH 40 NNW POF JBR 55 ENE PBF 20 E ELD.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW
BPT UTS 45 WNW LFK 20 NNE PRX 25 S TUL 35 NE PNC 30 SSW ICT 30 W HUT
25 ENE RSL 30 SW LNK 20 NE DNS 45 NE ALO 25 SE LNR 40 WNW CGX 30 WNW
LAF 25 NNE HOP 20 SSW CBM 35 WSW HUM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE CRP 40 SE CLL
25 WNW TYR 25 WNW PRX 30 WNW MLC 25 NNE CQB 15 SSE END 40 WSW END 20
N CSM 40 WNW CSM 40 NE BGD 10 NNE GCK 45 WSW EAR 40 S MHE 40 NW RWF
25 S DLH 20 N CMX 25 E TVC 20 N FDY 30 NE IND 15 N 0A8 15 ESE ABY 40
SW CTY ...CONT... 55 ENE SSI OGB 35 WNW FLO 20 NE SOP 25 NW EWN 50
SSW HSE.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN KS ACROSS MUCH OF MO
AND AR...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE ERN PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS EWD ACROSS THE LOWER/MID MS RIVER
VALLEYS...

OVERNIGHT MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN OVERALL STRENGTH/PLACEMENT OF
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AS IT OVERSPREADS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TODAY/TONIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF IT.  SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND
LIFT NEWD ACROSS KS TODAY...WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT SURGES ESEWD
AND SHOULD EXTEND FROM FAR ERN OK/NERN TX INTO CENTRAL TX BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE
LOWER/MID MS RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT.  12Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES
RETURN OF MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE IS ALREADY WELL UNDERWAY AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM...AND A GENERAL INCREASE IN SURFACE DEW POINTS IS
EXPECTED THRU THE DAY. A VERY STRONG SLY LLJ WILL DEVELOP OVER
MOISTENING WARM SECTOR WITH 50+ KT H85 JET AXIS FROM WRN LA INTO
CENTRAL MO BY LATER TODAY...WHICH WILL BE OVERSPREAD BY EXTREME
WINDS ALOFT /120+ KT AT H25 AND 75+ KT AT H5/.

APPEARS INSTABILITY AND STRONG CAP EVIDENT ON 12Z SOUNDINGS WILL
REMAIN LIMITING FACTORS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AS LOW CLOUDS HINDER SURFACE HEATING.  HOWEVER... ONSET OF
SIGNIFICANT LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND WEAKENING CAP ARE EXPECTED TO
SUPPORT RAPID SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL/ERN KS DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.  FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR
SUPERCELLS...DESPITE SBCAPE WELL BELOW 1000 J/KG.  LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES SHOULD ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS AS THEY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY AND RACE NEWD ACROSS ERN KS/WRN MO/FAR SERN NEB.

MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR NEAR
21Z JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM ERN KS/WRN MO INTO ERN
OK/WRN AR AND THE ARKLATEX REGION.  ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME QUITE
FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS WITH EXTREME LOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AND HIGH VALUES OF BOUNDARY LAYER RH.  LARGE HODOGRAPHS /0-1 KM SRH
IN EXCESS OF 250 M2/S2 / SUGGEST SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF TORNADOES...A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE SIGNIFICANT.  THERE
REMAINS SOME QUESTION ABOUT STORM-SCALE EVOLUTION/MODE AS STORMS MAY
STRUGGLE TO MOVE OFF FAST MOVING SURFACE COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY
INTO MO WHERE COMPONENT OF STEERING FLOW NORMAL TO THE FRONT WILL BE
SMALLER.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW STORMS TO ORGANIZE INTO FAST MOVING
LEWPS/BOW ECHOES... FURTHER ENHANCING THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT.  BY
THE EARLY/MID EVENING...SQUALL LINE SHOULD BE WELL DEVELOPED FROM
SRN IA INTO  SERN TX/LA WITHIN DEEP CONVERGENCE AXIS ALONG WRN EDGE
OF LLJ.  SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH SOME OVERNIGHT. 
HOWEVER...THREATS OF ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE/TORNADOES WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE WITH THE LINE...AND ESPECIALLY WITH ANY DISCRETE
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF IT...AS ACTIVITY MOVES EWD OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
MID AND LOWER MS RIVER VALLEYS.

..EVANS/BRIGHT.. 11/27/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM