[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 271636
SWODY1
SPC AC 271634

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1034 AM CST SUN NOV 27 2005

VALID 271630Z - 281200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E
ELD 35 SE TXK 10 N DEQ 10 NNW FSM 15 SSW JLN 20 WNW EMP 10 E MHK 10
NNW FLV 40 WNW COU 20 NNE VIH 40 NNW POF 10 WSW JBR 55 ENE PBF 30 E
ELD.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S
BPT 25 NW UTS 25 WNW PRX 30 ESE CQB 30 NNE CQB PNC 20 E P28 30 W HUT
25 ENE RSL 30 SW LNK 20 NE DNS 45 NE ALO 25 SE LNR 40 WNW CGX 25 NNE
DNV 20 NNE HOP 20 SSW CBM 65 SSE 7R4.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 ENE SSI OGB 35 NW
FLO 10 WNW FAY 15 W OAJ 75 ESE ILM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE CRP 30 SE CLL
15 NNE CRS GYI 40 SE OKC 25 N OKC 40 SW END 25 N CSM 40 WNW CSM 50 W
GAG 25 N GCK 20 E LBF 15 WNW MHE 15 SSW VVV 25 S DLH 20 N CMX 25 E
TVC JXN 25 S MIE 15 WSW BWG 15 E TCL 40 WNW ABY 30 SW VLD 40 SSW
CTY.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF AR...SRN AND WRN MO...AND ERN KS....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK
AREA...FROM E TX/LA NWD TO IA/IL....

...SYNOPSIS...
AN INTENSE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 115 KT 500 MB JET OVER NM
THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EWD OVER THE PLAINS TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...WHILE A SURFACE CYCLONE OVER SW KS EVOLVES INTO A DEEP
OCCLUDED LOW INVOF NW MO BY LATE TONIGHT.  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE FOCUSED TODAY INTO TONIGHT FROM NEAR THE SURFACE
LOW SWD ALONG A TRAILING DRYLINE/COLD FRONT.  

...E TX/LA NWD ACROSS ERN OK/KS...AR...AND MO...
A WEAKENING SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EJECTING NEWD OVER THE TN
AND LOWER OH VALLEYS.  THE LINGERING IMPACTS OF A LARGE THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTER ALONG THE NW GULF COAST YESTERDAY...AND VEERED L0W-LEVEL
FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS WAVE...HAVE DELAYED NWD MOISTURE RETURN TO
TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY.  A SHALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 65-68 F
DEWPOINTS IS CONFINED TO SE TX/SW LA AS OF MID MORNING...THOUGH THIS
MOISTURE WILL SURGE NWD TODAY IN RESPONSE TO A STRENGTHENING 50-60
KT LLJ.  STILL...LOW CLOUDS ON THE NOSE OF THE MOISTURE RETURN WILL
TEND TO LIMIT SURFACE HEATING SOMEWHAT TODAY FROM THE ARKLATEX NWD. 
THE NET RESULT WILL BE SBCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 500-1000 J/KG E OF
THE DRYLINE IN KS/MO BASED ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S...TO 1500-2000 J/KG INVOF THE ARKLATEX
WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID 70S WITH MID 60
DEWPOINTS BY LATE AFTERNOON. 

VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BECOME QUITE STRONG THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 65-80 KT
AND 0-1 KM SRH OF 300-400 M2/S2.  A COMPARISON OF MID-UPPER
FLOW/SHEAR VECTOR ORIENTATIONS WITH A N-S DRYLINE/COLD FRONT ACROSS
ERN OK...ARCING BACK TO THE NW ACROSS SE KS...SUGGESTS THAT BOTH
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN A
SOMEWHAT BROKEN SQUALL LINE.  INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS KS TO THE E OF THE SURFACE LOW...WHILE
SEPARATE DEVELOPMENT ON THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT ACROSS ERN OK WILL
BECOME MORE PROBABLE BY MID AFTERNOON AS THE RICHER LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE SURGES NWD FROM E TX. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE VERTICAL
SHEAR AND THE POSSIBILITY OF DISCRETE STORM ELEMENTS...A COUPLE OF
STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
TONIGHT.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT A SUBSTANTIAL THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS
WITH LINE SEGMENTS GIVEN THE VERY STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW...AS
WELL AS LARGE HAIL WITH THE INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING IN PROXIMITY TO THE STEEPEST LAPSE RATES.

..THOMPSON/GUYER.. 11/27/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM