[SWODY1] SWODY1

Sun Nov 27 06:03:46 UTC 2005

ACUS01 KWNS 270559
SWODY1
SPC AC 270558

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1158 PM CST SAT NOV 26 2005

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW
PBF 25 W HOT 35 WNW HOT 20 NE FSM 10 ESE JLN 35 SW OJC 15 W MKC 35
NE MKC 45 NW COU 20 NNE VIH 45 WNW POF 25 W JBR 50 ENE LIT 35 WNW
PBF.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S
GLS 50 NNW BPT 15 WSW SHV 20 NNW DEQ 35 W GMJ 45 WSW CNU 15 SW ICT
30 W HUT 25 ENE RSL 30 SW LNK 20 NE DNS 45 NE ALO 25 SE LNR 40 WNW
CGX 40 NNW DNV 20 SE PAH 20 SE UOX 60 SSW HUM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 S PSX 20 NNW HOU
15 NW GGG 30 NNE PRX 25 N MLC 25 NNE CQB END 40 WSW END 20 N CSM 40
WNW CSM 25 WSW GAG 15 NW DDC 45 WSW EAR 40 S MHE 40 NW RWF 25 S DLH
20 N CMX TVC 30 SW LAN 30 NE IND 50 WSW BNA MGR AYS 25 NW CHS 45 NE
CAE 20 NNW RDU 40 E EWN 65 S HSE.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF AR...MO AND FAR
ERN KS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL
PLAINS AND LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY...

...CNTRL PLAINS/OZARK PLATEAU/UPPER MIDWEST/LOWER MS VALLEY...
A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM OVER THE ROCKIES WILL ORGANIZE AND
SHIFT EWD INTO THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS TODAY. AS THE UPPER-LOW
CLOSES-OFF AND THE SYSTEM DEEPENS...STRONG AND WIDESPREAD
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AND OZARK
PLATEAU THIS AFTERNOON. RETURNING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE DURING THE DAY
AND INCREASING INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO INITIATE IN
CNTRL KS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AS THE SYSTEM COMES OUT INTO THE
PLAINS...CONVECTION SHOULD RAPIDLY INITIATE AND EXPAND SSEWD ACROSS
ERN KS...WRN MO AND WRN AR. VERY STRONG SHEAR PROFILES COMBINED WITH
THE HIGHLY DYNAMIC UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM WILL CREATE A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS THE REGION.

THE NAM/NAMKF AND GFS MODEL SOLUTIONS AGREE WITH BRINGING AN
IMPRESSIVE 125 KT MID-LEVEL JET THROUGH WEST TX INTO ERN OK DURING
THE DAY. THE EXIT REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL JET WILL SPREAD STRONG
DIFFLUENCE ACROSS ERN KS...WRN MO AND WRN AR RESULTING IN RAPID
STORM INTENSIFICATION BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER...THE GREATEST INSTABILITY SHOULD BE CO-LOCATED WITH THE
HIGHEST SFC DEWPOINTS OVER SW MO AND AR WHERE NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS
FORECAST MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE. FORECAST
SOUNDING ALSO SHOW 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES AROUND 8.0 C/KM ACROSS SW MO
AND WRN AR WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES. THIS COMBINED WITH A
FAST STORM MOTION TO THE NORTHEAST AND VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH A 70 KT 850 MB JET SHOULD RESULT IN A POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE. A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER 70 KT WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS A SQUALL-LINE DEVELOPS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVES EWD
ACROSS MO AND AR DURING THE EVENING. A FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE. 

THE LARGE HAIL THREAT SHOULD BE GREATEST FARTHER NORTH NORTHWEST
ACROSS ERN KS AND WRN MO WHERE STORMS WILL HAVE BETTER ACCESS TO THE
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LOW. AN
ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE NORTHEAST OF THE SFC
LOW ACROSS NE KS AND NRN MO WHERE SFC WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE ENELY
NEAR A SFC BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS THE KANSAS CITY
AREA. IF MORE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS THAN IS CURRENTLY FORECAST...THE
TORNADO THREAT COULD BE ENHANCED ACROSS THIS REGION. DUE TO THE
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD
CONTINUE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A SQUALL-LINE WITH MULTIPLE LINE
SEGMENTS...MOVES ENEWD INTO IA...IL...WRN TN...NW MS AND NE LA.
HOWEVER...AS INSTABILITY WEAKENS OVERNIGHT...THE HAIL AND WIND
DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME MARGINAL AFTER MIDNIGHT.

..BROYLES.. 11/27/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM