[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 261631
SWODY1
SPC AC 261630

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1030 AM CST SAT NOV 26 2005

VALID 261630Z - 271200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE
LBX 25 W BPT 40 SSW HEZ 35 ESE MCB 60 SSE BVE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW CLM 40 S OLM
35 SE EUG 40 NNW MFR 40 E CEC 30 SSW CEC 35 SW CEC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NW LRD 30 S BWD 50
NNE MWL 20 W TUL 30 E EMP 20 ENE CNK 35 ESE HSI 30 SSW OLU 20 N SLB
30 WNW RST 30 SSE CWA 15 E MTW 10 N AZO 15 SSW FWA 30 ENE EVV 50 SW
BNA 0A8 40 SW PFN.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH LATE EVENING FROM THE
UPPER TX COAST INTO SRN LA....

...SYNOPSIS...
A SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL
EJECT NEWD TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY TONIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO AN
AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN/FOUR CORNERS REGION.  LEE
CYCLOGENESIS IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...WITH A
BROAD/DEEP SURFACE LOW EXPECTED IN KS BY LATE TONIGHT. 
STRENGTHENING SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL DRAW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NWD
ACROSS TX/LA THROUGH TONIGHT...THOUGH THE MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE
MODULATED/DELAYED SOMEWHAT BY THE ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE NW
GULF COAST.  

...UPPER TX COAST/SRN LA THROUGH LATE EVENING...
A LARGE AREA OF RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS IS SPREADING SLOWLY EWD OVER THE
UPPER TX COAST AND SE TX IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE EJECTING SRN STREAM
WAVE.  WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/RAIN HAVE HELPED MAINTAIN A STABLE LAYER
NEAR THE SURFACE ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST...THOUGH TRENDS IN
SURFACE/BUOY OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD
INTO SRN LA THIS AFTERNOON.  BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S
WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES AOA 70 F WILL RESULT IN SBCAPE VALUES OF
500-1000 J/KG ALONG AND S OF THE WARM FRONT.  

WSR-88D/S FROM GLS AND LCH BOTH REVEAL A BROKEN BAND OF STORMS WITH
SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ABOUT 40 N MI S OF GLS-SABINE PASS...NEAR
THE SURFACE WARM FRONT.  VERTICAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT...WITH THE THREAT
FOR A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO THROUGH THIS
EVENING /REFER TO MCD 2467 FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS/.

W OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH AND SURFACE HEATING WILL RESULT IN
DESTABILIZATION ACROSS S TX THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...WEAK
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE EJECTING MID LEVEL WAVE
WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS W OF
THE ONGOING ACTIVITY.

..THOMPSON/GUYER.. 11/26/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM