[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 261953
SWODY1
SPC AC 261951

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0151 PM CST SAT NOV 26 2005

VALID 262000Z - 271200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S
LCH 25 NNW LCH 20 SW HEZ 35 ESE MCB 60 SSE BVE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE U28 35 ENE RKS
20 SW LAR 25 E 4FC 45 E DRO 20 SSW CEZ 15 E 4BL 15 ENE U28.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW CLM 40 S OLM
35 SE EUG 40 NNW MFR 40 E CEC 30 SSW CEC 35 SW CEC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S PSX 25 SW LBX 30
ENE HOU 20 SE LFK 10 S GGG 25 E DUA 10 SE ADM 20 W TUL 30 E EMP 20
ENE CNK 35 ESE HSI 30 SSW OLU 20 N SLB 30 WNW RST 30 SSE CWA 15 E
MTW 10 N AZO 15 SSW FWA 30 ENE EVV 50 SW BNA 0A8 40 SW PFN.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CNTRL/SRN LA AND EXTREME
SWRN MS...

...LWR MS VLY...
MCS HAS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED THIS AFTN...WITH A WELL-DEVELOPED
SUB-SYNOPTIC SCALE CIRCULATION MOVING INTO WCNTRL LA.  A LINE OF
TSTMS HAS EVOLVED SWD THROUGH SWRN LA AND INTO THE WRN GULF OF
MEXICO AT MID-AFTN.  ADDITIONAL...MORE DISCRETE CELLS...WERE FORMING
JUST AHEAD OF THE LINE SEGMENT...MAINLY OFFSHORE...BEFORE GETTING
ABSORBED INTO THE EWD-MOVING LINE.

THE MID-LEVEL WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS IS EXPECTED TO EJECT NEWD
TONIGHT TOWARD THE TN VLY...WITH THE STRONGEST PORTION OF THE LLJ
SHIFTING NWD WITH TIME.  TSTM WILL TEND TO DEVELOP ENEWD ACROSS LA
AND INTO MS OVERNIGHT IN THE ZONE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION.

THE WARM FRONT...NOW ANALYZED ALONG THE LA COAST...SHOULD MOVE
INLAND THIS EVENING...AT LEAST TO THE I-10/I-12 CORRIDOR...AS
PRESSURES CONTINUE TO FALL IN THE LWR MS VLY.  CONSEQUENTLY...THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL GRADUALLY DESTABILIZE WITH THE THREAT FOR
SURFACE-BASED TSTMS THROUGH THE EVENING.  THE LINE OF TSTMS WILL
LIKELY MAINTAIN CHARACTER WITH ISOLD EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND
LEWPS/BOWS GIVEN THE 50 KTS OF DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR.  DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME SRN LA AHEAD OF THE LINE
WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE THE STRONGEST...BUT THIS SCENARIO SHOULD
SUBSIDE AS STRONGEST ASCENT PASSES FARTHER N WITH TIME.  DAMAGING
WINDS AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS ACROSS
CNTRL/SRN LA. 

TSTMS WILL TEND TO BE MORE ELEVATED AT FARTHER N LATITUDES IN
LA/MS...BUT COULD STILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS /ISOLD SEVERE/ WHERE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WARMED SOMEWHAT THIS AFTN.

..RACY.. 11/26/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM