[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 261257
SWODY1
SPC AC 261255

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0655 AM CST SAT NOV 26 2005

VALID 261300Z - 271200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSW
PSX 40 ESE BAZ 35 WSW CLL 45 NNW JAN 30 SSE MEI 50 ENE BVE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW CLM 40 S OLM
35 SE EUG 40 NNW MFR 40 E CEC 30 SSW CEC 35 SW CEC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSE DRT 30 S BWD
45 NNW FTW 30 SW TUL 30 SW OJC TOP 15 WSW BIE 45 WSW LNK 20 NNE TQE
30 ESE FRM 20 W RST 35 E VOK 20 SE OSH 15 E BEH 45 NE LAF 30 ENE EVV
30 NNW HSV 20 SSE 0A8 15 SSE CEW 40 SW PFN.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF SERN/CENTRAL
TX ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...

...SERN TX INTO SRN LA...
MESSY CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL/SERN TX EARLY THIS
MORNING AHEAD OF PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW LIFTING INTO THE
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY.  SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOISTEN AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY AS SLY LLJ STRENGTHENS IN ADVANCE OF
APPROACHING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.  MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN
DEVELOPING 30-40 KT SLY H85 FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF LA BY LATER TODAY
WITH 40-50 KT SSWLY LLJ SHIFTING INTO MS AFTER DARK.  THUS...
LOWER/MID 60F SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME PREVALENT
INTO SRN LA EWD INTO THE SRN HALF OF MS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS HAVE REMAINED CAPPED EARLY THIS MORNING AND
RESULTANT INCREASING CONVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM HAS
REMAINED WEAK/ELEVATED.  HOWEVER...12Z SOUNDINGS AND VWPS FROM THE
REGION INDICATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING
UPDRAFTS WITH SFC-6 KM SHEAR FROM 40-50 KT.  THEREFORE WITH DIURNAL
HEATING AND INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING WITH TAIL END OF MCS NOW MOVING
INTO SERN TX AS IT OVERSPREADS THE UPPER TX COAST AND SRN LA TODAY.
LATER TONIGHT...SYSTEM MAY BECOME MORE ORGANIZED INTO THE LOWER MS
RIVER VALLEY WITH RESULTING SEVERE THREAT SPREADING EWD INTO
PORTIONS OF MS WHERE MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE IN
PLACE. DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE PRIMARY SEVERE
THREATS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  HOWEVER...COLD MID LEVEL AIR
ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM /H5 TEMPS AOB -14C/ SUGGESTS ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR.

OTHER STORMS MAY INCREASE FROM CENTRAL TX AND SPREAD INTO ERN TX
THROUGH THE DAY UNDER POCKET OF -16C TO -18C MID LEVEL TEMPS SAMPLED
AT DRT THIS MORNING.  THOUGH SHEAR WILL BE MUCH WEAKER NEAR THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER...VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT
AT LEAST A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL.

..EVANS/BRIGHT.. 11/26/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM