[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 260555
SWODY1
SPC AC 260554

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1154 PM CST FRI NOV 25 2005

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E
CRP 50 E BAZ 35 NNW CLL 30 SW SHV 30 NW HEZ 40 ESE MCB 50 SE BVE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW OGD 20 WNW BPI
45 SE LND 35 E FCL 40 SW ITR 30 NNW CAO 45 N LVS 45 NW 4SL 20 ESE
U17 20 NNW U24 35 NW OGD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 WSW LRD 45 ENE JCT
25 WNW CQB 40 NNE MHK 40 NW DSM 25 SW RFD 30 NNE LAF 45 NNE SDF 45
SE BNA 25 SSE BHM 75 WSW AAF.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN TX THROUGH THE SRN
PORTION OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

...SERN TX THROUGH SRN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

SLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN SATURDAY ACROSS SERN TX AND THE
LOWER MS VALLEY DOWNSTREAM FROM SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL EJECT
ENEWD ACROSS THIS REGION AS A STRONGER UPSTREAM IMPULSE AMPLIFIES
OVER THE GREAT BASIN AREA. THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR INTO SERN TX AND THE
LOWER MS VALLEY IN WAKE OF RETREATING WARM FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER 60S LIKELY. PRIMARY CONCERN IS HOW MUCH DESTABILIZATION
WILL ACCOMPANY THE MOISTURE RETURN. THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS AND AREAS OF ONGOING PRECIPITATION MAY LIMIT HEATING AND
INSTABILITY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. THIS COULD SERVE AS AN OVERALL
LIMITING FACTOR. AN MCS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF S TX
BY 12Z SATURDAY WITHIN ZONE OF FORCING ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL SUPPORT SOME POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STRUCTURES TO DEVELOP AS
THE MCS CONTINUES EWD. STORMS MAY INTENSIFY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
CONTINUES TO MOISTEN AND ESPECIALLY IF SURFACE HEATING CAN DEVELOP
WITHIN THE PRE-CONVECTIVE WARM SECTOR. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND. A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO
OR TWO WILL EXIST AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND ENHANCES
VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. SOME THREAT FOR HAIL WILL ALSO
EXIST GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS STRUCTURES WITHIN THE MORE OR
LESS LINEAR MCS. HOWEVER...THE HAIL THREAT ALSO APPEARS SOMEWHAT
CONDITIONAL UPON THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION.

..DIAL.. 11/26/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM