[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 251628
SWODY1
SPC AC 251627

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1027 AM CST FRI NOV 25 2005

VALID 251630Z - 261200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW
DRT 45 SW JCT 55 ENE JCT 10 SSW CLL 30 SE GLS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE BLI 45 ESE OLM
50 WNW RDM 45 NE SAC 50 SE UKI 80 W UKI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SE ELP 25 NNE INK
45 SSW LTS 30 NE ADM 20 NNW DEQ 35 ENE TXK 20 NE LCH 55 SSW 7R4.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS S TX....

...S TX THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT...
AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND RETURN FLOW CONTINUES THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO BASIN...WITH A NARROW CORRIDOR OF MID 60
DEWPOINTS FROM THE MIDDLE TX COAST SWD INTO THE EXTREME W CENTRAL
GULF.  THIS MOISTURE RETURN IS OCCURRING IN ADVANCE OF A SRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH INVOF THE SRN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AS OF MID MORNING.
 THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD AND APPROACH THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY
LATE IN THE PERIOD...IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE
PACIFIC COAST AND GREAT BASIN.

12Z SOUNDINGS FROM BRO/CRP SHOWED THE POTENTIAL FOR MLCAPE VALUES
NEAR 1000 J/KG WHEN MODIFIED FOR SURFACE HEATING AND GRADUAL
LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING...WHILE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
UPSTREAM OVER NRN MEXICO.  THE DESTABILIZATION OVER S TX...COMBINED
WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM W TO E THROUGH TONIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...WILL RESULT IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS LATER THIS EVENING INTO EARLY
SATURDAY.  INITIAL STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT INVOF THE RIO GRANDE...WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD EWD/NEWD OVERNIGHT AS A LOOSELY ORGANIZED MCS.

DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AT LEAST ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.  THOUGH LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY
STRONG...A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOMEWHAT ENHANCED
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ALONG THE RESIDUAL COASTAL FRONT/TROUGH OVERNIGHT.

..THOMPSON/GUYER.. 11/25/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM