[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 251239
SWODY1
SPC AC 251238

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0638 AM CST FRI NOV 25 2005

VALID 251300Z - 261200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSE
DRT 35 WNW HDO 20 WSW AUS 10 SSW CLL 15 E GLS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE BLI 45 ESE OLM
40 WNW RDM 35 ENE SAC 50 SSW MRY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SE ELP 20 S CNM 30
NNE INK 20 ENE BGS 45 SSW LTS 30 NE ADM 45 SE MLC 35 SSE TXK 20 NE
LCH 45 SSW 7R4.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SOUTHERN TX...

...SOUTH TX AND THE MIDDLE/UPPER TX COAST...
COMPACT MID/UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE ESEWD INTO CENTRAL MEXICO
EARLY THIS MORNING.  SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NEWD AS AN OPEN WAVE
 BY LATER TODAY...WITH MID LEVEL AXIS EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL TX INTO
THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO
AND THE ADJACENT TX COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.  BOUNDARY LAYER AIR
OVER THE WRN GULF BASIN CONTINUES TO MODIFY WITH BUOY DATA
INDICATING SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S EARLY THIS MORNING.  AS
LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS INCREASE/RESPOND TO APPROACHING UPPER
SYSTEM...THIS RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH
OF THE TX COASTAL PLAIN AND DEVELOP WNWWD TOWARDS CENTRAL TX BY
LATER THIS EVENING.  AS THIS OCCURS...WARM FRONT/COASTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED FROM THE UPPER TX COAST WWD TOWARDS THE
HILL COUNTRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

09Z RUC AND NAMKF BOTH DEVELOP MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND WEAK
CONVECTION NEAR THE UPPER TX COAST THIS AFTERNOON...DESPITE RIDGING
ALOFT...AS AFTERNOON HEATING OVERCOMES WEAK CAPPING.  SHOULD THIS
OCCUR...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BECOME
MARGINAL FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND AT LEAST LOW PROBABILITIES OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY.  PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS STRONG/DEEP ASCENT SPREADS
INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.  THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MODEST
AT BEST...REGION WILL BECOME OVERSPREAD BY 110-12O KT H25 WINDS
DURING LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.  IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BECOME MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR
SUPERCELLS.  CONVECTION MAY AWAIT LEADING EDGE OF DEEP ASCENT AND
SUBSEQUENTLY EVOLVE INTO A LINEAR MCS AFTER DARK WHICH WILL MOVE EWD
TOWARDS THE TX COAST OVERNIGHT WITH A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE
HAIL AND POSSIBLY A FEW TORNADOES.  OTHER STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE NEARER THE COAST LATER TONIGHT...PRECEDING ENEWD MOVING
MCS...WHERE SHEAR PARAMETERS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS ALONG STRENGTHENING LLJ.

..EVANS/TAYLOR.. 11/25/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM