[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 252000
SWODY1
SPC AC 251958

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0158 PM CST FRI NOV 25 2005

VALID 252000Z - 261200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW
DRT 45 SW JCT 55 ENE JCT 10 SSW CLL 30 SE GLS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE BLI 45 ESE OLM
50 WNW RDM 45 NE SAC 50 SE UKI 80 W UKI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SE ELP 25 NNE INK
45 SSW LTS 30 NE ADM 20 NNW DEQ 35 ENE TXK 20 NE LCH 55 SSW 7R4.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND S
TX...

...CNTRL/S TX...
UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER NWRN MEXICO APPEARS TO BE MAKING A TURN TO
THE EAST AS ADVERTISED BY SHORT TERM MODELS...AND SHOULD TRANSLATE
TOWARDS CNTRL/S TX TONIGHT.  MID/HIGH-LEVEL CONVECTION HAS BEEN
INCREASING THIS AFTN ACROSS NRN MEXICO AND PARTS OF TX AS UPPER FLOW
REGIME BECOMES DIFFLUENT DOWNSTREAM FROM THE IMPULSE.  A FEW SHALLOW
SURFACE BASED SHOWERS HAVE ALSO BEEN PRESENT ALONG THE UPPER TX
COAST VCNTY A WARM FRONT.  RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE MAJORITY
OF THE EXPANDING WARM SECTOR ACROSS CNTRL/S TX WAS CAPPED AT
MID-AFTN.

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NWWD ACROSS CNTRL/S TX
THROUGH TONIGHT.  SUFFICIENT HEATING...INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT
AND MOISTENING OF THE COLUMN WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING
PROBABILITIES FOR TSTM INITIATION ACROSS NERN MEXICO LATE THIS
AFTN...THEN IN THE RIO GRANDE VLY BY EARLY/MID-EVENING. STORMS
SHOULD EXPAND/DEVELOP RAPIDLY NWD INTO PARTS OF CNTRL/SWRN TX LATER
IN THE EVENING...ULTIMATELY EVOLVING INTO A LOOSELY-ORGANIZED MCS BY
SATURDAY MORNING OVER CNTRL/S TX.

VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION.  THOUGH
STORM MODE SHOULD MAINLY FAVOR LINE SEGMENTS...BRIEF SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES WILL BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS S TX/COASTAL
PLAINS WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE STRONGER. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...BUT A TORNADO OR TWO MAY OCCUR WITH
THE STRONGER...MORE DISCRETE STORMS.

..RACY.. 11/25/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM