[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 250548
SWODY1
SPC AC 250547

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1147 PM CST THU NOV 24 2005

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSW
DRT 20 SW JCT 40 WSW TPL 10 SSW CLL 65 S GLS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSW ELP 20 S CNM
25 N FST 20 ENE BGS 45 SSW LTS 25 ESE CHK MLC 35 SSE TXK 20 NE LCH
80 S 7R4.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NNW BLI 35 N PDX
30 SE EUG 50 ESE CEC 80 W UKI.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER S TX AND S CNTRL TX...

...S AND S CNTRL TX...

SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NWRN MEXICO WILL CONTINUE EWD TODAY AND BEGIN
TO AFFECT SWRN AND S TX THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THE GFS...NAM AND
ECMWF ARE SIMILAR IN TIMING WITH THE NAM SLIGHTLY FASTER. DEWPOINTS
OVER THE WRN GULF ARE NOW IN THE LOW 60S...BUT CONTINUED
MODIFICATION SHOULD SUPPORT UPPER 60S BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE
GRADIENT BETWEEN RETREATING SERN U.S. SURFACE RIDGE AND WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH OVER NRN MEXICO WILL MAINTAIN SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS SRN
AND CNTRL TX FRIDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO ADVECT RICHER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER THE WRN GULF NWWD THROUGH SRN AND CNTRL TX UNDERNEATH
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION. THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY REMAIN CAPPED TO SURFACE BASED STORMS MUCH OF
THE DAY. HOWEVER...FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE DURING THE
EVENING DOWNSTREAM FROM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS THE STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL JET ENHANCES WARM ADVECTION. EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER VERTICAL
SHEAR AROUND 40 KT WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES
EMBEDDED WITHIN CLUSTERS AND LINES OF STORMS. PRIMARY THREATS WILL
BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. HOWEVER...THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED
TORNADO OR TWO MAY INCREASE INLAND OF THE MIDDLE TX COAST AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

..DIAL.. 11/25/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM