[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 231207
SWODY1
SPC AC 231205

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0605 AM CST WED NOV 23 2005

VALID 231300Z - 241200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW BUF 15 NE ERI
CLE 40 W CLE 40 SSE DTW 45 NE MTC 20 ENE BAX 10 ESE APN 10 SE PLN 10
SE MBL 15 ESE MKG 20 WSW AZO 10 NW SBN 25 WSW BEH 35 ENE MKE 55 NW
MBL 45 ENE ESC 45 NE ESC 35 W MQT 30 E IWD 20 NNW IWD 25 S GNA 80
NNE CMX.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
POLAR VORTEX NOW OVER WRN HUDSON BAY EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE SSE TO
NEAR KSSM BY 12Z THURSDAY AS RIDGE PERSISTS IN THE WEST.  ARCTIC
COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THE VORTEX SHOULD REACH NRN MN BY MIDDAY AND
THEN SURGE RAPIDLY SE ACROSS WI/MI LATER TODAY/TONIGHT BEFORE
REACHING THE WRN SLOPES OF THE NRN APPALACHIANS EARLY THURSDAY.

...UPR GRT LKS...
VERY COLD AIR MASS /-16 TO -24 C AT 850 MB/ IN WAKE OF ARCTIC FRONT
WILL ENHANCE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AS IT SWEEPS SE ACROSS THE
RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF THE UPR GRT LKS /LK SUPERIOR SURFACE TEMPS
+5 TO 8 C...LK MI +6 TO +9 C...LK HURON +7 TO 9 C PER BUOY AND STLT
DATA/ THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.  DEEP MIXED LAYER /UP TO 600
MB/...STEEP 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES AND STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL NNW FLOW
SHOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF ONE OR TWO PERSISTENT LAKE PLUMES IN
ADDITION TO WIDESPREAD LESS ORGANIZED CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY IN LEE
OF LAKES SUPERIOR AND MI.

MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS MODIFIED FOR LAKE SURFACE TEMPERATURES
SUGGEST SUFFICIENT MUCAPE AND SUFFICIENTLY COLD EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL
TEMPS FOR THUNDER SNOW.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD TO THE E AND SE
SIDES OF LKS HURON AND ERIE BY 12Z THURSDAY.

..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 11/23/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM