[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 231616
SWODY1
SPC AC 231615

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1015 AM CST WED NOV 23 2005

VALID 231630Z - 241200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NE MTC 40 SE BAX
30 ESE OSC 10 S APN 35 W APN 20 W HTL 20 S RQB 15 S GRR 15 W AZO BEH
30 WNW BEH 35 ENE MKE 10 SE MTW 50 NE GRB 15 ENE IMT 45 NW IMT 30
SSE IWD 15 E ASX 25 S GNA 50 ENE GNA.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W BUF 30 WNW JHW
20 NNW FKL 25 NNW YNG 15 E CLE 30 WSW CLE 45 E TOL 40 SE DTW.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
VERY COLD UPPER LOW CHARACTERIZED BY -40 C 500 MB TEMPERATURES WILL
SINK SWD ACROSS ONTARIO AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY THU MORNING. AT
THE SURFACE...AN ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL INFILTRATE THE UPPER MS VALLEY
AND GREAT LAKES...SETTING UP STRONGLY CONVECTIVE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BANDS OVER MI. ELSEWHERE AROUND THE NATION....CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY
WILL BE NON-EXISTENT.

...GREAT LAKES / MICHIGAN...
PASSAGE OF ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR THE FORMATION OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BANDS MAINLY AFTER 00Z...ACROSS THE U.P. OF MI AND
EXTENDING INTO NRN MI LATE IN THE PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE 700 MB TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE -25 TO -30 C
RANGE...WITH NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL 35-45 KT MEAN WIND PROFILES IN
THE LOWEST 1KM. LAKE SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM IN
THE MID 40S F. GREATEST THREAT OF LIGHTNING WITHIN LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BANDS WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR MARQUETTE SEWD INTO FAR NRN/NWRN
MI...AND AFTER 06Z...WHEN LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED AROUND
LAKE SHORES.

..JEWELL/HALES.. 11/23/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM