[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 230524
SWODY1
SPC AC 230522

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1122 PM CST TUE NOV 22 2005

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW BUF 15 NE ERI
CLE 40 W CLE 40 SSE DTW 45 NE MTC 20 ENE BAX 10 ESE APN 10 SE PLN 10
SE MBL 15 ESE MKG 20 WSW AZO 10 NW SBN 25 WSW BEH 35 ENE MKE 55 NW
MBL 45 ENE ESC 45 NE ESC 35 W MQT 30 E IWD 20 NNW IWD 25 S GNA 80
NNE CMX.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...GREAT LAKES...
00Z GFS/NAM ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A POLAR VORTEX...CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER NRN HUDSON BAY...WILL TRACK SWD ACROSS ONTARIO TODAY TO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT.  VERY COLD AIR MASS /-16 TO -24 C
AT 850 MB/ WITH THIS FEATURE WILL SPILL SSEWD ACROSS THE RELATIVELY
WARM LAKE WATERS /LS AT +5 TO 9 C AND LH +8 TO 10 C/ MAINLY DURING
THE SECOND HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY
STEEP 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES...SUPPORTING EMBEDDED SHALLOW CONVECTION
WITHIN LES BANDS MAINLY OVER AND IN LEE OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. 
POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS MODIFIED FOR THE WARM LAKE TEMPERATURES
INDICATED THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK MUCAPE...WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL
TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR CHARGE SEPARATION.  THIS THREAT FOR CG
LIGHTNING MAY DEVELOP OVER LAKE ERIE BY 12Z THURSDAY...WITH A
GREATER POTENTIAL ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE DAY
2 PERIOD.

..PETERS.. 11/23/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM