[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 212001
SWODY1
SPC AC 211959

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0159 PM CST MON NOV 21 2005

VALID 212000Z - 221200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE
CRE 40 WNW ILM 35 SSW GSB 15 ENE GSB 45 ENE ECG ...CONT... 45 W APF
35 NNE DAB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE ISP 50 ESE PSM
...CONT... 50 S SRQ 25 E OCF 20 S AYS 30 WNW AHN 45 ENE RMG 50 SSE
TYS 25 ENE SPA 25 S DAN 30 NNW ORF 35 ESE ACY.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS...AND SWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN FL...

...COASTAL NC...
COMPLEX/ELONGATED SURFACE LOW -- COMPRISED OF THREE SMALL-SCALE
CENTERS ATTM -- CONTINUES TO EVOLVE/SHIFT EWD TOWARD THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS.  MEANWHILE...WARM FRONT REMAINS SITUATED ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST OF SRN NC.  MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE
ALONG/E OF THE WARM FRONT...WHERE SLY/SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
BENEATH STRONG SWLY FLOW ALOFT IS YIELDING SHEAR PROFILES FAVORABLE
FOR SUPERCELLS.  

THOUGH MOST FAVORABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY OFFSHORE...A
NARROW WARM SECTOR SHOULD REMAIN ALONG THE COAST -- AND PERHAPS
EXPAND SLIGHTLY INLAND -- UNTIL LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS NEWD TO A
POSITION OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER THIS EVENING. 
THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN A NARROW SEVERE THREAT ALONG THE NC COAST
-- WHERE A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINAL HAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON. 

...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SRN FL...
THOUGH LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS DECIDEDLY VEERED/WSWLY ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA...SEVERAL BANDS OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
ALONG SUBTLE SURFACE CONFLUENCE AXES.  MOST ORGANIZED BAND OF STORMS
IS OCCURRING ALONG WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT...NOW
EXTENDING FROM NEAR JAX TO JUST E OF SRQ ATTM. 

THOUGH LAPSE RATES REMAIN WEAK...DIURNAL HEATING OF FAIRLY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER IS RESULTING IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY /AROUND 500 J/KG
MEAN-LAYER CAPE/.  THIS COMBINED WITH FAIRLY STRONG DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR WITH HEIGHT WOULD SUGGEST THAT A LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL
PERSISTS.  THOUGH MAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS
WITHIN SMALL-SCALE CONVECTIVE LINES...A FEW SMALL/ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS MAY ALSO EVOLVE THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN SUFFICIENT
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.  THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN WILL END ENTIRELY AS COLD
FRONT MOVES OFF THE SERN FL COAST THIS EVENING.

..GOSS.. 11/21/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.