[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 211629
SWODY1
SPC AC 211628

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1028 AM CST MON NOV 21 2005

VALID 211630Z - 221200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW
PIE 30 ENE SGJ 55 SE SAV 15 NW SAV 15 WSW OGB 30 NNE FLO 15 ENE GSB
50 ESE ORF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE ISP 50 ESE PSM
...CONT... 50 E AAF 30 ENE MAI 25 E TOI 10 S LGC 45 SE CLT 20 NW ORF
35 ESE ACY.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE ERN CAROLINAS
AND FL...

...SYNOPSIS...
AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS CLOSED LOW NOW
ENTERING MS PHASES WITH STRONG NRN STREAM JET TO MAINTAIN LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S.  SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH MS SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE ALONG THE SERN SEABOARD TODAY.  THE
MAIN SURFACE CENTER SHOULD DEEPEN RAPIDLY TONIGHT AS ITS ACCELERATES
NNE TO OFF THE NJ/LONG ISLAND CST TUESDAY MORNING.

...ERN NC...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM/QUASISTATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING
E/NE ALONG THE SE ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN FROM SURFACE LOW IN SE GA. 
THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES NE THROUGH A SUBSYNOPTIC LOW NEAR KILM. THE
STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE NC CSTL PLAIN
DOWNSTREAM FROM THE LATTER FEATURE...AND THE MOST RAPID LOW LEVEL
AIR MASS RECOVERY APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING IN THIS REGION /REF MCD
2451/.

RADAR LOOPS CONTINUE TO SHOW PRESENCE OF EMBEDDED ROTATING
THUNDERSTORMS IN CONFLUENCE BAND EXTENDING SSE FROM THE KILM SURFACE
WAVE INTO THE ATLANTIC.  THE NRN EDGE OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
TO GRAZE THE OUTER BANKS OF NC AND ERN PARTS OF THE NC CSTL PLAIN
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AS BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM AND
MOISTEN.

DEEP SHEAR WILL REMAIN SSWLY...PARALLEL TO WARM FRONT...WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING TO AOA 70 KTS.  COUPLED WITH SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL
VEERING PRESENT INVOF BOUNDARY /0-1 KM SRH UP TO 400 M2 S2/...SETUP
COULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED TORNADOES.  THIS THREAT SHOULD SPREAD NNE TOWARD THE VA
BORDER WITH TIME BUT SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS MAIN SURFACE
LOW CONSOLIDATES JUST OFF THE NC/VA CST.

...ERN SC/SRN NC...
IN WAKE OF PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED REGION...ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION/STORMS MAY FORM AHEAD OF GA LOW AS THAT SYSTEM ELONGATES
NEWD AND EVENTUALLY MERGES WITH LOW NOW NEAR KILM.  THIS ACTIVITY
LIKELY WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ABOVE SHALLOW COOL LAYER. THE
STRONGEST CELLS MAY...HOWEVER ...POSE A THREAT FOR HAIL AS LARGE
SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND DEEP SHEAR STRENGTHEN IMMEDIATELY
DOWNSTREAM FROM ACCELERATING UPR TROUGH.

...CNTRL/S FL...
VEERED DEEP WIND FIELD S OF DEEPENING SERN STATES LOW WILL LIMIT
DEPTH/DEGREE OF CONVERGENCE ALONG TRAILING COLD FRONT AND
PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT LINE CROSSING THE FL PENINSULA TODAY. 
NEVERTHELESS...CONVERGENCE MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT WIDELY
SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORM DEVELOPMENT AS SURFACE HEATING BOOSTS
MUCAPE TO NEAR 1500 J/KG.  40 KT UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY SHEAR SUGGESTS
POSSIBILITY OF SMALL SCALE BOWING SEGMENTS IF SUSTAINED STORMS DO
INDEED FORM.

..CORFIDI/THOMPSON.. 11/21/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.