[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 211255
SWODY1
SPC AC 211253

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0653 AM CST MON NOV 21 2005

VALID 211300Z - 221200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 WSW
CTY 20 NNW GNV 30 NNW SSI 25 NNE SAV 20 SE OGB 20 SSW FAY 15 ENE GSB
50 ESE ORF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE ISP 50 ESE
PSM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW PFN 20 WSW GZH
25 SW SEM 30 ENE ATL 15 SE GSO 10 ESE RIC 35 ESE ACY.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FL PENINSULA AND COASTAL
CAROLINAS...

STRONG VORT/UPPER LOW LOWER MS VALLEY 12Z WILL RESPOND TO LARGE
SCALE TROUGHING UNDERWAY ERN U.S. AND MOVE RAPIDLY EWD TO OFF
CAROLINA COAST BY LATE TONIGHT.  

FRONTAL ZONE JUST OFF CAROLINA COAST AND ACROSS NERN FL INTO ERN
GULF OF MEXICO.  PRIMARY SURFACE LOW NOW DEVELOPING ALONG FRONT
OFFSHORE SRN SC COAST AND WILL DEEPEN NEWD ALLOWING A SMALL WARM
SECTOR TO MOVE INTO COASTAL NC THIS AFTERNOON.

IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE DEEPENING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS VEERING TO
SWLY ACROSS FL PENINSULA AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND UPPER
TROUGH. HOWEVER WITH STRONG MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND A MOIST
AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL MAINTAIN A RISK OF A FEW
STORMS BRIEFLY BECOMING SEVERE WITH PRIMARY THREAT OF WIND DAMAGE
UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. 

FURTHER NE A BETTER CHANCE OF ROTATING STORMS IS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
STRONG VEERING SHEAR PROFILES VICINITY OF FRONTAL ZONE.  AGAIN A
MOIST BUT ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR WILL LIMIT SEVERE
THREAT TO PRIMARILY BRIEF WIND DAMAGE. THERE IS A RISK OF A TORNADO
OR TWO...PARTICULARLY COASTAL NC WHERE FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE ABLE TO
SHIFT INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF DEEPENING SURFACE LOW.

..HALES/CROSBIE.. 11/21/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.